NFL Week 5 survivor picks: Expect more Minnesota misery in Seattle
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The Rams certainly didn't make it comfortable, but they got the job done as we move on to Week 5 unscathed.
Looking ahead, based on the teams we have and haven't picked so far, we're in a good position to make a nice run. So let's do exactly that.
Week 5 confidence rankingConfidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:
| AWAY | HOME (SPREAD) | PICK (CR) |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | Seattle (-7) | SEA (9) |
| Cincinnati | Baltimore (-13.5) | BAL (9) |
| Miami | San Francisco (OFF) | SF (7) |
| Arizona | NY Jets (+6.5) | ARI (7) |
| LA Rams | Washington (+9) | LAR (7) |
| LA Chargers | New Orleans (-7.5) | NO (7) |
| Jacksonville | Houston (-6.5) | HOU (6) |
| Philadelphia | Pittsburgh (-7) | PIT (6) |
| NY Giants | Dallas (-9) | DAL (6) |
| Denver | New England (OFF) | NE (4) |
| Tampa Bay | Chicago (+6) | TB (3) |
| Carolina | Atlanta (-3.5) | CAR (2) |
| Buffalo | Tennessee (OFF) | TEN (2) |
| Indianapolis | Cleveland (+2.5) | CLE (1) |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Author's pick: Seattle SeahawksSeattle is a beautiful city. Its waterfront is gorgeous, there's a fun downtown core, clean architecture, plenty of greenery, and it's just a short drive away from Mount Rainier. Despite all the city offers, it's fair to say Mike Zimmer and the Vikings hate visiting.
CenturyLink Field has been a house of horrors for the Vikings, and the Seahawks have become Zimmer's kryptonite. Minnesota has visited Seattle in each of the last two seasons - with much better teams than the current Vikings - and it hasn't come close to winning on either occasion while also going 0-2 ATS. Since Zimmer was named head coach of the Vikings in 2014, they're 0-4 against the Seahawks and have looked miserable when playing in Seattle.
Zimmer will need to dig deep for this Week 5 trip. His team is limping into Seattle with a depleted defense to take on a Seahawks offense that ranks second in the NFL in yards and points per game, and first in red-zone touchdown percentage and yards per pass. Russell Wilson is indeed cooking, and the Vikings' defense won't slow him while missing key contributors at all three phases, and as it gives up 6.1 yards per play this season.
Offensively, the Vikings could give Seattle some problems, especially following the emergence of Justin Jefferson. But it's hard to see them keeping pace with the hosts. Minnesota needs to establish the run for Kirk Cousins to find success, and that's where the Seahawks excel defensively, ranking third in the NFL while allowing just 3.4 yards per rush.
It's going to be another long evening for the Vikings at CenturyLink.
Avoid: Dallas CowboysIt's been a minefield of a season in survivor pools, and if you've made it this far, are you really comfortable risking it all on the Cowboys? If the Falcons simply jumped on an onside kick, Dallas would be 0-4 right now, and that record would be fully deserved.
Opposing offenses have dominated the Cowboys, and it's impossible to feel safe backing a team with a defense that has more holes than a mesh tank top. Dallas ranks dead last in the NFL in points allowed and points per play against. The Cowboys are also 22nd in yards allowed per play, and they would be lower if Dallas didn't keep falling far behind in the second half, resulting in the opposition getting conservative with its play-calling.
The Giants don't often catch fire offensively, but there are enough weapons on this team to exploit a miserable Cowboys defense, even without the injured Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Despite falling to 0-4, the Giants haven't just laid down this season. They've competed well against the Steelers, Bears, and Rams, and defensively New York has been better than expected, ranking sixth while allowing just 5.1 yards per play.
Don't bite on the chalk in a divisional showdown between a pair of clubs with a combined one win. There are eight teams I'd rather pick this week than the Cowboys.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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