NFL upset of the week: Jaguars will spoil Crennel's debut

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Each week during the NFL season, we'll focus on one underdog with a chance to pull off the outright upset. Last week, we cashed with the Vikings (+175) against the Texans, bringing our season record to 2-2 with +1.85 units won.

This week, we're fading Houston once again in favor of the Jaguars (+220), who are surprisingly big underdogs against a team in disarray.

A franchise in flux

I couldn't believe this line when I saw it early in the week. The Texans lost all four games this year by at least a touchdown, boast below-average numbers on offense and defense, and have dropped five straight games against the spread dating back to last season.

Then Houston fired coach Bill O'Brien, and the number inexplicably didn't move. Teams that introduce a new coach in the middle of the season are 13-23 ATS/11-25 straight up in the last 20 years, and new coach Romeo Crennel is 7-16 ATS in his last 23 games as a head coach with just four outright wins.

Crennel was at the helm of the league's sixth-worst scoring defense before Monday's promotion, and now he'll manage the overall game plan and play-calling duties that O'Brien left behind. Does that sound like a winning recipe?

Which is the better team?

Last week, we noted how the Vikings were a better team than the Texans by nearly every metric, highlighting the suspect nature of that betting line. The same is true this week, especially since oddsmakers have priced Houston as an even bigger favorite.

The Jaguars rank higher than the Texans in DVOA (No. 15 to No. 21) and PFF team grades (No. 17 to No. 23), yet the latter are power-rated as roughly four points better on a neutral field based on this line. Houston is also 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a favorite and 4-7 ATS in its last 11 giving points to Jacksonville.

The matchup bodes well for the Jaguars, who rank seventh in yards per carry and sixth in rushing DVOA. The Texans' run defense is atrocious no matter what stat you check, ranking dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (181.8) and 29th in DVOA run defense.

Why the Jaguars will win

A week ago, the Vikings gashed the Texans' vulnerable rush defense and pinned their ears back defensively, forcing Houston's inconsistent passing attack to win in unfavorable circumstances.

The Jaguars are built to follow a similar blueprint, especially against a team trying to install a new coaching staff and game plan on short notice. Nothing about Houston is stable, creating the perfect environment in which to take a long shot on a team that might be better, anyway.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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