NFL Week 9 survivor picks: Darnold will see more ghosts vs. Patriots
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Hopefully, you tuned in last week. We won again, easily, with the Chiefs, and while that's no reason to brag, advising you to avoid picking the Packers, is. Green Bay lost to the Vikings, and if you followed our advice, you enjoyed every second of that game as another chunk of people were eliminated from your survivor pool.
Let's break down the Week 9 options.
Week 9 confidence rankingConfidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:
| AWAY | HOME (SPREAD) | PICK (CR) |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina | Kansas City (-11.5) | KC (9) |
| Houston | Jacksonville (+6.5) | HOU (7) |
| Pittsburgh | Dallas (N/A) | PIT (7) |
| New England | NY Jets (+7) | NE (7) |
| Chicago | Tennessee (-6) | TEN (5) |
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay (-4) | TB (4) |
| Baltimore | Indianapolis (N/A) | BAL (4) |
| NY Giants | Washington (-3.5) | WAS (4) |
| Green Bay | San Francisco (N/A) | GB (3) |
| Seattle | Buffalo (+2.5) | SEA (3) |
| Las Vegas | LA Chargers (-1) | LAC (2) |
| Detroit | Minnesota (-4) | MIN (2) |
| Denver | Atlanta (-4) | DEN (1) |
| Miami | Arizona (N/A) | MIA (1) |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
After going with Kansas City last week, obviously, I'm taking an alternate route here. But it bears mentioning: if you haven't used the Chiefs yet, they would be my top choice this week.
Instead, I'm presented with a tough decision in Week 9. The way I look at it, there are three options, each with its own appeal. Do I trust an unbeaten team coming off an emotionally draining win? If not, it's between a pair of teams I don't particularly trust, facing a pair of squads I'm quite content fading.
Let's make the case for all three.
The case for Pittsburgh...There isn't a team in the NFL right now playing better football than the Steelers, and the Cowboys have blossomed into the NFC's version of the Jets. Pittsburgh is playing lights out on defense, ranking second in DVOA, and while the offense is in the middle of the pack for efficiency, it's in the top five in terms of scoring thanks to its big-play ability.
Everything seems to be going right for the 7-0 Steelers. The opposite is true of the Cowboys. Dallas has been outscored 86-22 in three games without Dak Prescott while averaging just 3.5 yards per play. They have just one touchdown in that span, coming late in garbage time against the Cardinals. The Cowboys are hopeful they'll get Andy Dalton back for this game, but it won't matter. Whoever is under center hasn't been afforded the time to find success. Their porous offensive line has allowed the fifth-most sacks, and they could make a real run at the top spot after this week against a Steelers defense that leads the league in that regard.
Pittsburgh's only concern is an emotional hangover in what has to be dubbed a letdown spot following a huge win in Baltimore last week. If the Steelers can maintain their focus, it's tough to find a path to victory here for the Cowboys.
The case for Houston...The Texans wouldn't be on my radar if Bill O'Brien was still in charge, but the absence of BOB inspires a bit more belief in Deshaun Watson and Co. The Texans steamrolled the Jaguars 30-14 at NRG Stadium in their first game after firing O'Brien, averaging an incredible 8.4 yards per play. Watson threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and there's every reason to expect him to find the same success as the Jaguars secondary ranks dead-last against the pass, allowing 8.4 yards per attempt.
The Jaguars defense has been victimized with remarkable consistency this season, ranking 31st in both yards and points allowed per play. Houston will have its way on offense, putting pressure on the Jaguars and rookie quarterback Jake Luton to keep pace in his first NFL start. We can expect a healthy dose of James Robinson against a Texans defense that's surrendering a miserable 5.2 yards per rush (31st), but Luton will have to make plays through the air eventually.
Jacksonville struggled on offense with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, with its passing and overall offense ranking in the bottom third in yards per play. It's tough to envision a scenario where this group improves with Luton under center. Meanwhile, Houston boasts a top-five overall offense in both of those categories and has posted terrific numbers against weak defenses like the Jaguars. In a matchup between Watson and Luton, you'd be crazy to pick the latter.
The case for New England...As I watched the Chiefs beat up on the Jets Sunday, my biggest takeaway was that Sam Darnold is absolutely still feeling the effects of his shoulder injury. He spent all afternoon throwing checkdowns and wide receiver screens, despite playing the entire game from behind. He averaged a feeble 4.4 yards per attempt, with just one pass going for more than 20 yards. On Monday, it was confirmed Darnold is indeed still battling his injury. As bad as Joe Flacco has been for this miserable Jets offense, you can't convince me an injured Darnold, who can't push the ball downfield, is an improvement.
The Patriots have their own offensive issues, but it appeared as though they figured some things out. I have a lot more faith in Cam Newton and New England's stable of running backs to find success moving the ball than I do a Jets offense ranking last in the NFL by a landslide with just 4.2 yards per play. The opportunistic Patriots defense will force a few turnovers and present the offense with some short fields to help get back into the win column.
On-field product aside, backing Bill Belichick to beat Adam Gase is about as safe a bet as one could make. Belichick's defense has given Darnold fits in the past. Darnold saw ghosts when these teams met at MetLife Stadium last season on Monday Night Football. He finished that game with just 11 completions for 86 yards on 32 attempts and turned the ball over five times (four interceptions, one fumble) in a 33-0 loss. We've been fading the Jets all season, and I don't see the point in stopping now.
Author's pick: PatriotsAlex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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