Packers-49ers betting trends and player props

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What once looked like a potential NFC title preview has lost a bit of its luster this week, as the shorthanded Green Bay Packers (-7, 48.5) travel to the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of last year's conference championship game.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Thursday night.

Betting trends

The 49ers have owned the Packers in recent years, going 6-1-1 against the spread and 6-2 straight-up since 2010, with two consecutive blowout wins. But that could actually bode well for Aaron Rodgers, who's 18-12 ATS in his last 30 games against teams that beat him in their previous meeting.

This is also a solid spot for Rodgers to bounce back after last week's loss to the Minnesota Vikings. He's 34-21-1 ATS in his career - including six straight wins - after a defeat and 9-4-1 ATS after losing to a division rival. He's also 13-4 ATS as a favorite after losing outright as a favorite the week before.

Both teams are coming off a loss, which has been strongly predictive in Thursday night games. The only problem is the trends cut both ways: since 2019, Thursday favorites coming off a loss are 2-9 ATS, while underdogs coming off a loss are 9-4 ATS. However, home teams coming off a loss are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games, while road teams off a loss are 6-1 ATS in their last seven on Thursday.

The Packers scored at will to start the year but have gone 4-0 to the under since Week 4, with the last three games coming without Aaron Jones, whose status is again in doubt Thursday. The 49ers are 6-1 to the over in their last seven after a loss and 9-5-1 to the over in their last 15 prime-time games.

Player props

Aaron Rodgers over 280.5 passing yards (-110)

If the Packers have any chance of winning on Thursday, they'll need to rely heavily on Rodgers. Jones will either be sidelined again or face a limited workload, while Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon are on the reserve/COVID-19 list. That leaves Green Bay with just two running backs: Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams, who own a combined 15 career rushing attempts.

Even with a healthy stable of backs, Rodgers has topped this passing mark in four of his last five games and now faces a secondary still dealing with injury concerns. Take the over in a game Rodgers could need to win by himself.

Kyle Juszczyk over 10.5 receiving yards (-110)

Taking the over on a fullback speaks volumes to how thin San Francisco's receiving corps is after injuries and COVID-19 protocols left it with a group of running backs and practice-squad receivers as the top targets. That's to say nothing of Nick Mullens, who will step into the starting quarterback role to replace Jimmy Garoppolo.

Juszczyk is also no slouch, having recorded at least 11 receiving yards in four games this year and each of the last two. The Packers have allowed more receiving yards to opposing running backs (443) than any other team, which bodes well for Juszczyk's chances to surpass this number once again as Mullen's safety blanket.

Best bet

Under 48.5

This total dropped by three points since it opened earlier this week before we knew just how thin these offenses would be. The Packers should win this game, but with injuries everywhere, it's safer to bet the under in what could be a sloppy matchup.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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