NFL upset of the week: Buy Colts in great value spot vs. Ravens

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Each week during the NFL season, we'll focus on one underdog with a chance to pull off the outright upset. Last week, we correctly targeted the Dolphins (+165) in a strong home spot against the Rams, bringing our record to 3-5 on moneyline underdogs with +0.5 units won.

This week, we're getting behind a shorter underdog in the Colts (+105), who are in a prime spot to upset a beleaguered Ravens squad.

Colts are undervalued

Anyone who's followed our NFL betting coverage this year knows how high I've been on the Colts since before the season started. We're finally seeing them reach that potential. Over its last seven quarters since falling behind early to the Bengals in Week 6, Indianapolis has scored 10 touchdowns and forced four fumbles and two interceptions.

The Colts are a top-five team by nearly every advanced and traditional metric, including DVOA (No. 5), PFF team grades (tied for No. 4), and point differential (No. 5). Their defense has been dominant nearly all season, while the emergence of their passing attack - Philip Rivers has three touchdowns in each of the past two weeks - could be key against a depleted Ravens defense.

A thinning Ravens roster

Even a week ago, this matchup would have an entirely different tenor. The Ravens' roster is simply too thin to project any confidence in them this week.

In last week's loss to the Steelers, Baltimore lost All-Pro tackle Ronnie Stanley to a season-ending injury after he'd ranked first in pass block win rate and ninth in run block win rate through the first eight weeks, according to ESPN's Seth Walder. Since then, the team has placed at least seven players on the COVID-19/reserve list, including All-Pro corner Marlon Humphrey and standout rookie linebacker Patrick Queen.

The Ravens' offense is built primarily around the strength of its O-line, which takes a massive hit with Stanley sidelined. The defense is also vulnerable without its top corner and linebacker, let alone the host of other starters that could miss Sunday's game.

Why the Colts will win

Given the potential losses in the Ravens' starting lineup, it's surprising to see them still favored against a top-tier Colts team that destroyed the Lions a week ago. They might not be for long - the line is already moving toward Indianapolis as of Thursday, and that should continue if Baltimore's roster outlook doesn't improve.

The Ravens have been among the NFL's best bets over the last 14 months, but coming off last week's costly loss to their bitter rivals, this is simply a bad spot to trust them as road chalk. Instead, grab the moneyline value on the Colts in one of the best matchups of the week.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

Copyright (C) 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.