Colts-Titans betting trends and player props

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Two of the best teams in the league face off Thursday as the Titans (-2, 48.5) host the Colts with first place in the AFC South on the line.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Thursday night.

Betting trends

The Titans are narrow favorites in Thursday's contest, but it's been all Colts in the series between these divisional foes. Indianapolis has gone 12-5 against the spread since late 2011 and 3-1 ATS since the start of 2018.

This is also a solid spot for the Colts' coach and quarterback. Frank Reich is 8-5-1 ATS in his career in divisional games, while Philip Rivers is 8-3 ATS in Thursday games with a 7-4 record to the under. Ryan Tannehill is 2-3 ATS on Thursday with a 5-0 under record.

One of the best bets for years used to be fading road 'dogs on Thursday night, but oddsmakers have seemingly adjusted. Since 2019, teams in that spot are 10-5 ATS with six outright wins and a four-game ATS win streak.

This game also features one of the most profitable spots to bet in the entire NFL. Road underdogs catching two or fewer points are 38-14 ATS since 2017 with a stellar 9-2 ATS record this year. When the market tells you the road team is better on a neutral field, pay attention.

Player props

Jordan Wilkins over 31.5 rushing yards (-110)

Wilkins may not be the most talented player in the Colts' backfield, but he's the one his coaches can trust. After Jonathan Taylor's lethargic first-half showing in Week 8, Wilkins earned 14 carries to Taylor's one in the second half. A week later, Wilkins outsnapped Taylor and nearly doubled his workload, including a 9-1 advantage in carries after the rookie's first-quarter fumble.

The third-year back has been productive with those rushes, too, gaining 89 yards against the Lions and 39 yards against a stout Ravens defense. The Titans have been pedestrian against the run this year, so if Wilkins gets another opportunity, he'll seize it.

A.J. Brown to score a touchdown (+110)

Brown is becoming one of the game's best receivers before our eyes, and opposing defenses can't keep him out of the end zone. The second-year wideout scored six touchdowns in the last five games and has scored at least once in eight of his last 10 games in the regular season.

The Colts' defense has been strong across the board this year, but it's had some issues containing top-end physical receivers. If the Titans struggle to get the run game going, expect plenty of opportunities for Brown, who's always a threat to break one loose in open space.

Best bet

Colts +2

I've been riding the Colts all year long, and this is an ideal bounce-back spot with compelling value as an underdog. Indianapolis' defense has been elite all season, and the offense seemed to be putting things together before it encountered the Ravens' vaunted D. Expect a better showing against the Titans, who could struggle to find their footing against the Colts' rush defense.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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