Ravens-Patriots betting trends and player props

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One of the more underrated rivalries of the last decade takes center stage this week when the Ravens (-7, 43) travel to face the Patriots, who are underdogs for just the second time in these teams' last 12 meetings dating back to 2004.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Sunday night.

Betting trends

This is a rare spot for New England, which is a home underdog for the first time since 2014 and the fourth time since 2005. The Patriots have caught at least seven points just twice in the last 10 seasons, though they're 9-3 against the spread in that spot under Bill Belichick.

Conversely, this is nothing new for Baltimore, which is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 as road chalk and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight giving at least a touchdown on the road. The Ravens are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against clubs with losing records, winning each game by an average of 18.6 points.

Prime time also favors the road team here. New England has lost six straight ATS under the lights, starting with last year's defeat to Baltimore and including last week's three-point win over the Jets. Patriots quarterback Cam Newton is also 6-15 ATS during his career in that spot. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 prime-time games with an average scoring margin of +7.6 points.

Could that New York win be the tuneup New England needed? The last seven teams to beat the Jets went 5-2 ATS in their following game, while the Patriots are 8-1 ATS after beating their division rival since 2015.

Player props

Jakobi Meyers over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)

You might think this would be the perfect opportunity to fade Meyers after his breakout game against New York, right? Not at this number. For whatever reason, oddsmakers are still skeptical of his ability to rack up yardage with Julian Edelman out and few playmakers to compete with.

Meyers has now posted yardage totals of 60, 58, and 169 in the last three weeks as Newton's main option, earning a 40.5% market share of his team's targets and 65.9% market share of New England's air yards during that stretch, per 4for4. Both lead all receivers over the last three weeks. Expect Meyers to be targeted early and often Sunday against a thinning Ravens secondary.

Marquise Brown to score a touchdown (+175)

Speaking of thinning secondaries, the Patriots' pass defense is in trouble. With Stephon Gilmore out last week, fellow corner J.C. Jackson allowed two touchdowns in coverage to former Ravens speedster Breshad Perriman. New England has now allowed 10 scores to opposing wideouts this year, tied for the 10th-most by any team.

Brown has mostly had a year to forget, but he's an ideal threat to break one open against the Patriots as one of the league's fastest receivers. If Gilmore misses another game, Jackson will have his hands full Sunday night.

Best bet

Ravens -7

These Patriots simply aren't good, as evidenced by their 1-4 ATS/SU record over the last five weeks, and it's taking the market a while to catch on. New England's air-tight secondary was its one redeeming quality entering this year, but that's quickly become a liability with Gilmore shelved.

The Ravens rarely mess around against inferior competition. Given the bad blood in this matchup, it's unlikely they'll lay an egg here, either. Bet Baltimore to blow this one open.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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