Vikings-Bears betting trends and player props

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You wouldn't know it by looking at the teams' records, but the Vikings (-3, 43.5) are surging into Monday's contest against the struggling Bears, losers of three straight after a 5-1 start to the season.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Monday night.

Betting trends

For years, Mike Zimmer was one of the best coaches to bet as a favorite. That hasn't been true as of late, as the Vikings are 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine as chalk. They're also 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games against the Bears with a four-game losing streak outright.

This prime-time spot doesn't help matters, either. Minnesota is 2-10-1 ATS on Monday night since 2010, while Kirk Cousins is famously 0-9 ATS in his career in that spot and 7-15-1 ATS in all prime-time games, including 3-6-1 ATS with the Vikings. Bears quarterback Nick Foles is 8-4 ATS under the lights, outperforming the spread by 6.5 points per game.

The trends are incredibly strong to the under in this one, too. Chicago is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 home games and 11-4 to the under after a loss since Matt Nagy took over in 2018. The Bears are also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 divisional games and 7-3 to the under in their last 10, while the Vikings are 8-4 to the under in their last 12 against divisional foes.

For whatever reason, Monday night has drawn the best out of defenses in recent years. The under is 22-10-1 in the last 33 games on Monday night, including a remarkable 15-2 to the under with a total of 46 or lower.

Player props

Kirk Cousins under 229.5 passing yards (-110)

The key to the Vikings' recent success has been taking the ball out of their quarterback's hands. Minnesota is 0-5 this year when Cousins attempts 25 or more passes and 3-0 when he doesn't, including 2-0 in the last two weeks. Some of that is related to game script, though Dalvin Cook's elite play over the last two weeks is clearly a factor.

Even if Cousins does get a shot to pad his stats, he'll struggle to do so against a Bears defense allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (218.2). Cousins has averaged 190 passing yards over the last two weeks and should hover around that number on Monday, too.

Darnell Mooney over 38.5 receiving yards (-110)

Mooney's stats don't scream "star potential," but he's been playing like one in his rookie year. The Bears wideout has posted at least 40 yards receiving in three straight games despite his quarterback missing on a handful of wide-open deep throws, all courtesy of Mooney's exceptional route-running.

With offensive coordinator Bill Lazor taking over the play-calling this week, expect a better rhythm to the offense, which should help the timing between Foles and Mooney. Don't be surprised to see even more deep shots this week against a pass defense allowing 287.9 yards per game.

Best bet

Bears +160

The Vikings have looked like the better team in recent weeks, but it's hard to fault the Bears too much for losses to the Rams, Saints, and Titans. Their offense has been held back by inept play-calling for years, so shifting responsibility to Lazor should have an immediate impact.

Since 2017, only six of 41 NFC North games have been decided by three points or fewer, so don't hesitate to take a shot on the moneyline. This is a game the Bears should win, and there's decent value here betting them to do just that.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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