NFL MVP odds: Wilson surpassed by Mahomes as betting favorite
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Four weeks ago, Russell Wilson looked like a near lock to win his first NFL MVP award. Now, he's not even the favorite.
That honor goes to Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+175), who leads the NFL in QBR (87.0) and ranks second in passer rating (115.9) through 10 weeks. Wilson (+280) ranks second weeks after being priced shorter than even money, while Aaron Rodgers (+300) and Kyler Murray (+800) are the only other options shorter than 10-1.
Kansas City was on a bye this past week, though Mahomes was electric in his last start, torching the Panthers secondary for four touchdowns a week after tossing five scores against the Jets. Still, the fact Wilson lost his lead to an idle competitor speaks to how poorly he's played lately.
The Seahawks quarterback threw for two interceptions and zero touchdowns in Sunday's loss to the Rams, only the fourth time he's done that in his career and the first time since 2016. It was his third multi-interception game in his last four, with Seattle going 1-3 since its torrid 5-0 start.
Quarterbacks have won this award in 12 of the last 13 seasons, with Adrian Peterson's stellar 2012 run the lone outlier. Among those 12 QBs, all of them led their team to at least 11 wins, and they averaged only 2.6 losses among them. Wilson's team has already lost three games and is currently clinging to the final spot in the NFC playoffs; no MVP winner has missed the postseason since 1973.
Even more concerning for Wilson's chances to win the award are his turnover woes, which might be disqualifying for his candidacy.
His 10 interceptions are tied for third-most in the NFL behind Carson Wentz (12) and Kirk Cousins (11), and he's on pace to finish with 18 picks. Since 2002, no MVP winner's finished with more than 16 interceptions, and none ranked in the top five in the league. In fact, only three winners ranked worse than 19th in interceptions among that group.
This isn't to say Wilson can't win the award. Each of the last 14 quarterbacks to win MVP finished in the top five in passing touchdowns; Wilson currently leads the league (28). He's also second in passing yards (2,789) and has chipped in 325 yards on the ground. Yet if he can't quit turning it over - tanking the Seahawks' chances of winning in the process - he'll be a hard bet to justify at such short odds.
The race isn't just between Mahomes and Wilson, either. Here are the updated odds to win the award with three names to watch over the final seven weeks:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +175 |
| Russell Wilson | +280 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +300 |
| Kyler Murray | +800 |
| Tom Brady | +2000 |
| Josh Allen | +2300 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +3000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +5000 |
| Dalvin Cook | +5000 |
| Philip Rivers | +5000 |
| Derek Carr | +8000 |
Murray was a trendy candidate among public bettors at roughly 25-1, but the Cardinals' slim playoff hopes seemingly doomed his candidacy. Who's laughing now? After Sunday's wild win against the Bills, Murray and co. are tied atop the NFC West with a 6-3 record and have the inside track for the No. 3 seed in the conference.
Murray ranks outside the top 10 in passing yards (2,375) and touchdowns (17), but he leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (604) and is second among all players in rushing touchdowns (10). He's also engineered three fourth-quarter comebacks, which helps his narrative as an emerging superstar in the league. If he outduels Wilson on Thursday, this number will only get shorter.
Josh Allen (+2300)Allen was on the other side of Murray's miracle Sunday, yet he still padded his stats with 322 total yards and three scores, including one as a receiver. His statistical resume is certainly deserving of hardware - he leads the league in passing yards (2,871) and is tied with Rodgers, Mahomes, and Murray for the second-most total touchdowns (27).
The Bills' record over the final seven weeks will be crucial. Buffalo plays just two teams with a winning record in that stretch, so it's conceivable for the Bills to finish with 11 or 12 wins and snap the Patriots' 11-year AFC East winning streak. That could be enough to bolster Allen's strong statistical case.
Dalvin Cook (+5000)Yes, running backs rarely win this award anymore. And, yes, the Vikings are only 4-5 after Monday's win over the Bears. But what more is a man to do? Cook currently leads all players in rushing yards (954) and rushing touchdowns (12) despite playing one game fewer than most, and he's currently on pace for 2,143 scrimmage yards and 24 total touchdowns.
That yardage total would be the most since ... Christian McCaffrey in 2019, which is another reason why he's unlikely to win the award. Still, at 50-1, there's value here on Cook ripping off a historic run over the final seven weeks and emerging from a mostly uninspiring field.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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