Bears-Packers betting trends and player props

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The NFL's oldest rivalry adds another chapter Sunday night when the Packers (-9.5, 44) host the Bears in a pivotal game for playoff seeding and, in Chicago's case, survival in the NFC postseason race.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Sunday night.

Betting trends

If you're hoping the trends will boost your confidence in the Bears, you may want to skip this section entirely.

Where do we even start? The Packers are 18-7 against the spread versus Chicago since Aaron Rodgers took over as the full-time starter in 2008. They're also 34-25 ATS (57.6%) in prime time since then, including 5-1 ATS in their last six games in that spot.

Since Rodgers took over, Green Bay is 55-37-1 ATS (59.8%) as a home favorite and 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) when favored by at least nine points at home. The Bears, meanwhile, are 10-14-1 ATS as road 'dogs since 2016, with a 1-3 ATS record against the Packers in that stretch.

Could we be in for an under Sunday? Chicago is 15-7 to the under in its last 22 as a road underdog, while the Packers are 11-5-1 to the under in their last 17 as home chalk. These two have also gone under in each of their last three meetings, while the under is 5-2 in the last seven games on Sunday night.

Player props

Aaron Rodgers passing yards under 296.5 (CHANGE NUMBER)

This number may seem low for Rodgers, who's surpassed 300 passing yards in three straight games. But this matchup favors a different approach by the Packers, as the Bears rank top 10 in average passing yards allowed (225) but just 15th in rushing yards allowed (115.1).

In fact, Chicago's defense hasn't allowed an opposing team to reach 290 passing yards all season, and it's held seven of 10 opponents this year to under 235 yards. Rodgers can surpass this number, but he likely won't have to with a favorable game script and rushing matchup on his side.

Allen Robinson receiving yards over 65.5 (CHANGE NUMBER)

It's difficult to make any sense of this line. Robinson ranks 15th in the NFL in receiving yards per game (75.5) and has recorded at least 70 receiving yards in seven of 10 contests this year, including three of the last four.

No, a quarterback change to Mitchell Trubisky isn't ideal. But Robinson still averaged 76.7 yards in Trubisky's three starts and will likely be the QB's security blanket in his first start since Week 3. Over plays don't get more obvious than this.

Best bet

Packers -9.5

I want to believe in the Bears, I really do. But their offensive ineptitude is too hard to ignore. They rank 31st in yards per play (4.7), points per play (0.30), and points per game (19.1), and switching back to Trubisky won't solve any of those woes.

Chicago won't be able to keep up with the Packers, who have scored at least 30 points in seven of their 10 games this season. If Green Bay can shake off the rust from last week's second-half collapse, this one won't be close.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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