NFL Week 13 survivor picks: Beware of Steelers, Ravens vs. NFC East foes
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This past weekend played out nicely as each of our top four picks came through, while the Rams - who were on upset watch - fell at home to the 49ers.
Here's the lay of the land for Week 13.
Week 13 confidence rankingConfidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:
| AWAY | HOME (SPREAD) | PICK (CR) |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | Miami (-11) | MIA (9) |
| Denver | Kansas City (N/A) | KC (8) |
| Jacksonville | Minnesota (-9) | MIN (7) |
| Philadelphia | Green Bay (-8) | GB (7) |
| NY Giants | Seattle (N/A) | SEA (7) |
| Cleveland | Tennessee (-5) | TEN (6) |
| Washington | Pittsburgh (N/A) | PIT (5) |
| Dallas | Baltimore (N/A) | BAL (5) |
| Las Vegas | NY Jets (+7.5) | LV (5) |
| New England | LA Chargers (PK) | NE (4) |
| Indianapolis | Houston (+2.5) | IND (3) |
| New Orleans | Atlanta (+3) | NO (3) |
| LA Rams | Arizona (+2.5) | LAR (3) |
| Detroit | Chicago (-3.5) | DET (1) |
| Buffalo | San Francisco (+2.5) | SF (1) |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
1. Miami Dolphins (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)Brandon Allen is not an NFL quarterback and neither is Ryan Finley. Whoever starts under center this week is going to have a tough time against a Dolphins defense allowing an average of just 15.6 points over the last seven games. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are a force in the secondary, and the pass rush is rapidly improving.
The best way to attack Miami is on the ground, which the Bengals are completely unequipped to do. Cincinnati ranks 29th in run-play percentage and rushing yards per game, and things have only gotten worse with Joe Burrow out. Bengals running backs have recorded just 23 attempts for 67 yards over the last two weeks.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)The Chiefs have won 10 straight games over the Broncos and are 8-1-1 against the spread in those contests. With Patrick Mahomes at the helm, Kansas City is 5-0 against Denver while averaging 30 points and recording an average margin of victory over 14.
The only reason this isn't atop the list is because of the sliver of letdown potential for the Chiefs coming off emotional road wins over the Raiders and Buccaneers. That is if Mahomes is even capable of a letdown.
3. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)A list of things Kirk Cousins has accomplished this season: win on Monday Night Football, lead a game-winning drive with under two minutes left, and post an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a 136.4 passer rating in the fourth quarter. Despite Minnesota having arguably its worst season of the Cousins era, he's kept the team in the hunt by having his best campaign in a Vikings uniform.
With Dalvin Cook healthy and the Jaguars potentially starting their third quarterback in as many weeks, Minnesota has a good chance at reaching .500 for the first time this season.
4. Green Bay Packers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)The amount of excuses being made for Carson Wentz is laughable. The Eagles are in disarray, and with their playoff hopes dwindling, it's a miserable time for a trip to Lambeau Field. Owner Jeffrey Lurie looked like he was pondering a firing spree Monday night. I'm not sure how much more of Wentz he needs to see to realize he's not the guy.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as he has in years. The Packers' offense ranks fourth overall, according to PFF, and first through the air, which is exactly how you attack an Eagles defense that ranks 25th in coverage.
5. Seattle Seahawks (vs. New York Giants)With Daniel Jones likely out Sunday as a result of a hamstring injury, the upset factor in this game decreases tenfold. An underrated Giants defense could cause problems for a Seahawks offense looking less explosive than it did earlier this season, but Colt McCoy would give Seattle's improving defense another cupcake matchup. New York will make things interesting, though.
6. Tennessee Titans (vs. Cleveland Browns)The Browns are 1-3 this year against teams with winning records and 0-2 on the road, with an average margin of defeat of 31.5 points in those two away games. In four contests against teams above .500, Baker Mayfield has completed just 53.8% of his passes, averaged 169 yards, and thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
The Titans now grade as the ninth-ranked defense by PFF, including fifth in coverage and 14th against the run. Cleveland is 21st against the run - hello, Derrick Henry - and 18th in coverage. Mike Vrabel has righted the ship in Tennessee, and the Titans will take another step toward the AFC South crown Sunday.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Washington Football Team)Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas have helped resurrect Washington's passing game, while Antonio Gibson looks more like a superstar every week. Alex Smith is writing an incredible story, and the front seven is causing havoc for opposing offenses. This is probably too big a step up in class for the NFC East hopefuls, but they're catching the Steelers at the right time amidst a mess of postponements and COVID-19 cases.
8. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Dallas Cowboys)Regardless of what happens in Pittsburgh on Wednesday - and it likely won't be pretty for the depleted Ravens - this feels like a get-right spot for Baltimore. Still, having to play on very short rest with extremely limited practice time over the two weeks leading up to this game - against a Cowboys team that will have had 11 days off - isn't exactly ideal.
9. Las Vegas Raiders (@ New York Jets)You'd figure this would be higher up the list, but we saw how much Derek Carr struggled in an early start last week. Now he's faced with a second successive road game on the east coast - this one outside in the cold - with a banged-up Josh Jacobs. It's enough for me to tread lightly.
10. New England Patriots (@ Los Angeles Chargers)What this boils down to is Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn, and I'm backing Belichick 10 times out of 10. Here's why.
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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