Bills-49ers betting trends and player props

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

It was only a few weeks ago the 49ers (-1, 47.5) looked dead in the water amid a rash of injuries. Yet bettors have targeted last year's NFC champions in a prime-time spot against the Bills, who are surging against the spread ahead of this matchup.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Monday night.

Betting trends

For a while, it looked like the Bills' early-season magic was a flash in the pan, as a four-game ATS losing streak tanked bettors who'd bought into this team. Buffalo has gone 3-0 ATS since, winning twice outright and losing to the Cardinals on a Hail Mary in the final seconds.

Compare that to the 49ers, who lost three straight ATS before last week's outright win over the Rams as six-point underdogs. Now they're favored for the first time since Week 5, when the Dolphins blew out San Francisco by 26 points in the Niners' second consecutive loss as chalk.

Neither team has fared well in prime time as of late - the 49ers are 1-3 ATS in their previous four, while the Bills are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven. This is still a solid spot for Buffalo, which is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog. San Francisco has gone 0-3 ATS this year as home chalk and 6-21-2 ATS in its last 29 tries.

The Bills have been one of the best over teams on the year, posting the second-best mark (8-3) in the NFL, while the 49ers are riding a 4-1-1 under run. Does this prime-time spot suggest one way or the other? The under is 24-11-1 in the last 36 Monday games, including 9-5-1 this season.

Player props

Nick Mullens over 246.5 passing yards (-110)

Mullens hasn't exactly been impressive in his three starts since Jimmy Garoppolo went on injured reserve. He's thrown more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (two) and has a passer rating below 90 in each. But he's been put to work, logging at least 247 passing yards in all three starts and posting 238 yards in Week 8 despite playing fewer than half his team's snaps.

Now he faces a Bills defense that's allowed at least 274 yards to eight of their 11 opponents this year. If Buffalo can build an early lead in this one and force Mullens into a favorable game script, this number won't be an issue.

Josh Allen over 29.5 rushing yards (-112)

The 49ers' rush defense looks like a middle-of-the-pack unit on the surface, but you'll see a major split in production allowed if you break it down. San Francisco entered Week 13 allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (72), yet they've allowed 31 yards per game to opposing QBs, most in the NFL.

Allen has averaged 37.2 rushing yards per game in his career and has picked up at least 30 yards on the ground in each of the last two weeks. Expect the Bills to scheme Allen into the run game to take advantage of a favorable matchup against an otherwise stout run defense.

Best bet

Bills +1

It's rarely wise to go against sharp money, which ushered this line from an opening number of Bills -2.5 to the current mark of 49ers -1. I think oddsmakers got it right the first time. Home-field advantage is essentially moot without fans and with the Niners moving into their new home in Arizona, so this number suggests San Francisco is a better team on a somewhat-neutral field.

There's very little to support that, from point differential and turnover margin to advanced stats and on-field results. Buffalo checks all the boxes, and it checks the box here for me as an underdog in a very winnable spot.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

Copyright (C) 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.