NFL Week 15 best bets: Dolphins, Bears deserve more respect

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We're on a roll with our picks lately, ripping off a 7-2 record against the spread over the last three weeks. Here are my best bets for Week 15.

Patriots @ Dolphins (-2, 41.5), 1 p.m. ET

In some ways, this is a bad spot for the Dolphins, who could be without Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker for Sunday's divisional clash. But even if both miss this week, that won't be enough to consider the Patriots the better team, as this line suggests.

Miami boasts one of the league's best defenses, with a lockdown secondary and chaotic blitz packages that should give Cam Newton issues this week - as was the case for Patrick Mahomes in Week 14 - fueling the unit. And if the Dolphins' receiving corps is depleted on Sunday, the team can attack New England's atrocious rush defense, which is allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs.

The Patriots have lost five of their last seven games in Miami, while the Dolphins are 10-3 against the spread this year and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home. Don't get cute with this matchup.

Pick: Dolphins -2

Buccaneers (-6, 49.5) @ Falcons, 1 p.m.

Last week, we said the Buccaneers were being undervalued against bad teams based on their poor performances when facing elite clubs. That was the case this past Sunday, when Tampa Bay easily covered as a 6.5-point favorite against the Vikings, and it's the same situation here.

Four of the Buccaneers' losses this season have come against the Saints, Rams, and Chiefs - three of the NFL's five best teams by advanced metrics. Against all other opponents, they're 6-2-1 ATS with a +14.22 point differential and seven wins by seven-plus points.

The Falcons have played just four teams currently above .500, and they've lost all four games by a combined 47 points. Tampa Bay can't afford to lose this contest with the playoff race heating up, so expect it to take care of business in a clear mismatch.

Pick: Buccaneers -6

Bears @ Vikings (-3, 47), 1 p.m.

The Bears have a legitimate shot to pull off the outright upset as +155 underdogs, so I like them catching points in this game, too.

Chicago clearly isn't a great team, but the apathy toward this squad has swung the pendulum too far in the other direction. The Bears are 5-2 straight up against teams currently below .500, and they're 4-1 ATS in that spot as underdogs. The club is also just the 16th team since 2017 to win by at least 28 points one week and catch points the next, and the previous 15 squads went 10-5 ATS with seven outright wins.

The Vikings' defense could be in for a rough week if do-it-all linebacker Eric Kendricks misses another game, and their offense will struggle to find a rhythm against the Bears' elite run defense. Chicago is the better team and in the better spot, which makes this an easy play.

Pick: Bears +3

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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