NFL upset of the week: Titans' strengths will present issue for Packers

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Each week during the NFL season, we'll focus on one underdog with a chance to pull off the outright upset. There's not much left for us to say after last week's win by the Bears (+155), who became the fifth straight 'dog we've cashed. That win brings our record to 8-6 with +7.7 units won solely on moneyline underdogs.

We know that can't last forever, but we'll take our chances on the Titans (+160) in a favorable spot against the Packers.

All hail King Henry

Unlike last year, when Green Bay's run defense was arguably the worst in the league, the Packers have held their own this year. Yet the team is still allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and will have their hands full against the league's top rusher.

Derrick Henry enters this week as the NFL's leading rusher (119.9 yards per game) and is averaging an absurd 139.3 rushing yards over his last six. He's ran for a combined 362 yards in the past two weeks to fuel the Titans in blowout wins. That's been the recipe for Tennessee this year: pound the rock with Henry, and set up Ryan Tannehill to exploit overaggressive defenses.

The best way to flummox the Titans' offense is to build an early lead and pressure Tannehill, but the Packers' once-vaunted pass rush has taken a dramatic step back this year. If Green Bay can't build a sizable lead early on, its defense will struggle to stay ahead of the chains.

Bad matchup for unproven Packers

Neither of these teams have played particularly daunting schedules, but the Packers have fewer signature wins and could have their weaknesses exposed once again in a heavyweight spot.

After beating the Saints without Michael Thomas in Week 3, Green Bay has played just two teams (Buccaneers, Colts) entering Week 16 with a winning record. It lost both games in a similar fashion - the Packers' defense struggled to contain the run, while their offense fell victim to turnovers.

The Titans' defense has had its issues against the pass, but it's still tied for fifth in takeaways (21), while the team overall is tied for the NFL lead in turnover differential (+12). If Tennessee plays to its strengths, it'll present a difficult matchup for the Packers once again.

Why the Titans will win

The Packers and Titans are two of the three best teams in the NFL, per PFF, and they've both ridden stellar offenses to double-digit wins. Green Bay's run defense still looms as the most exploitable aspect of this matchup, and Tennessee's rush offense is arguably the most potent unit in the league behind the Chiefs' passing attack.

That alone is reason enough to like the Titans' chances on Sunday, and Tennessee's propensity for forcing turnovers is icing on the cake for a plus-money value.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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