Saturday's NFL best bets: Picking our favorites from a 3-game slate

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A stretch of four straight days with NFL action really ramps up Saturday with an exciting triple-header filled with playoff implications.

The action starts with Buccaneers-Lions from Detroit, continues with 49ers-Cardinals from the desert, and finishes with a Dolphins-Raiders nightcap. Here's how we're betting the slate.

Alex Kolodziej

Lions team total under 22 (-110)

The Lions have lost four of the last five but somehow the offense has been holding up its end of the bargain. Detroit's quietly gone over its team total in four straight, averaging 27 points per game. This is where the magic runs out.

The Buccaneers' defense paces the league in virtually every rushing statistic. Detroit, meanwhile, is No. 26 in yards per attempt and No. 23 in rush DVOA.

I know the Lions are 'dogs, in a dome, and should be chucking, but Matthew Stafford is still banged up, and there are issues with the play-calling duties. I'll bet on Tampa's defense in this spot.

Dan Arnold under (TBA) receiving yards (-115)

The Cardinals' offense has received a nice boost down the stretch from Arnold. He has three touchdowns in as many weeks, including a season-high 61 yards over that span. However, this is a good spot to sell high.

The 49ers allow the fewest yards per game (31.7) to opposing tight ends in the entire league. And although Arnold's been lighting up the stat sheet, he hasn't played in more than 40% of offensive snaps in five straight.

He's an easy fade Saturday.

Alex Moretto

49ers/Cardinals over 48.5 (-110)

In control of their own playoff destiny, the Cardinals have played arguably their best football of the season in the last two weeks. Kyler Murray and the offense registered 916 yards and 59 points in their last two games against a pair of stout defensive units in the Eagles and Giants.

A banged-up 49ers defense that's now without Richard Sherman is a step down, and the Cardinals will score at will.

We can safely expect the 49ers to contribute on the scoreboard as well. Despite the miserable play of Nick Mullens - C.J. Beathard starts this week - San Francisco has generated plenty of offense of late thanks to Kyle Shanahan's talent as a play-caller. The 49ers averaged over 400 yards of offense the past three weeks and they will find continued success here against a middling Cardinals defense. The return of George Kittle will help their red-zone woes as well.

Nelson Agholor under 46.5 receiving yards (-115)

Henry Ruggs has been activated off the COVID-19 list and Hunter Renfrow returned to practice fully, with the assumption being he will clear concussion protocol in time to play. Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs will also command a large share of targets in a Raiders offense that loves spreading the ball around.

No matter where Nelson Agholor lines up, he's going to see a healthy dose of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard against a Dolphins team that almost exclusively plays man coverage. With a limited target share and plenty of attention from Miami's top corners, expect a quieter night from Agholor.

C Jackson Cowart

Kyler Murray over 41.5 rushing yards (-115)

Any time Murray faces the 49ers, I rush to check the number on this prop. Sure enough, this is easily low enough to justify the over on the NFL's 18th-leading rusher (741 yards).

The Cardinals quarterback has run for at least 45 yards in eight of 14 starts this year, including when he gashed San Francisco's defense for 91 yards in the season opener. That came after he rushed for 34 yards and 67 yards against the 49ers in two meetings a year ago.

This season, San Francisco's defense ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs and has allowed at least 42 rushing yards to QBs in four games this year. Expect Murray to make it five.

Dolphins -3 (-105)

I know I'm not the only one here who's enjoyed the Dolphins' 11-3 ATS record this year, but it feels like we're among the few who have seen through these flimsy lines on the Fins.

I smell another fishy price this week against the Raiders, whose defense is a trainwreck and whose offense will struggle to withstand the barrage of pressure from Miami's tenacious front.

Derek Carr was originally supposed to miss two weeks with a "significant" groin injury; now he's playing nine days later and will be expected to evade the Dolphins' unrelenting pass rush? I'm just not buying it.

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