10 takeaways from Week 16

The Rundown recaps the most important developments from the weekend's action and examines the significance of those events moving forward.

Steelers salvage season Joe Sargent / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Six minutes into the third quarter, Pittsburgh trailed Indianapolis 24-7 and was well on its way to its fourth straight loss - but it was even worse than that. The Steelers' offense was barely functional, and it seriously looked like quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's career was ending in real time. Pittsburgh had already made the playoffs thanks to its 11-0 start, but it was easy to see the team closing with five straight defeats and a quick postseason exit. Then it all changed.

The offense finally, mercifully ditched its predictable "let's spread teams out and have Roethlisberger flip it near the line of scrimmage and hope for the best" approach. There was some pre-snap motion, some misdirection, some tempo changes, some run-pass options - even some play-action from an offense that uses it far less than any other team. Roethlisberger seemed like he could consistently attack the intermediate and deep parts of the field - no small feat, considering how noodle-armed he had looked for the last month or so. None of that appeared possible when the Steelers got the ball for their first second-half possession.

Pittsburgh finished with 21 unanswered points to secure the AFC North and either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Roethlisberger and some other starters may have the opportunity to rest for next week's finale at Cleveland. But more importantly, the Steelers looked like genuine AFC challengers again. It was an astounding turnaround, and it came when it absolutely had to happen.

Browns keep Browning Sarah Stier / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Pittsburgh's recent free fall opened the door for Cleveland to maybe position itself to win the AFC North. So much for that.

The Browns were without nearly their entire receiving corps due to COVID-19 concerns, but they were also unable to run the ball effectively: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for just 39 yards on 15 carries. Cleveland was in a 20-3 hole early in the third quarter. This is where I ought to mention the Browns were playing the 1-13 Jets, who have now won two in a row and will probably extend Adam Gase and keep Sam Darnold as a result. (I'm kidding. Even the Jets aren't that dumb. I think.)

Ironically, the Steelers' win over the Colts bumped Indianapolis behind Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore in the AFC playoff race. The Browns can still reach the postseason for the first time in 18 years with a win next week at home against Pittsburgh, which might be resting its starters. But Sunday's loss to the Jets was just the latest entry in a long list of reminders for Browns fans: Never assume anything good is assured.

Rams on the brink Abbie Parr / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Los Angeles Rams didn't only lose a chance to win the NFC West by losing at the Seattle Seahawks. Jared Goff sustained a potentially serious thumb injury that casts doubt over where the Rams' season can go from here.

L.A. can still get into the playoffs with a victory at home against the Cardinals or a defeat and a Bears loss to the Packers, who might still need to win to wrap up that top seed. But the Rams will have to do it with someone named John Wolford at quarterback. Wolford has never thrown a pass in an NFL regular-season game.

Dolphins' QB rotation a success Harry How / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It was fair to wonder if Miami head coach Brian Flores was being too impatient with Tua Tagovailoa when he first pulled the rookie quarterback for Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 11, and whether he risked damaging Tagovailoa's confidence. But maybe there's a method to this madness.

Flores said he'd stick with Tagovailoa as the starter going forward after Fitzpatrick led the Dolphins to a comeback victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday (with an assist from Jon Gruden's late-game coaching blunder). It's a defensible decision.

Teams typically don't use quarterback rotations, for lots of reasons. But the 10-5 Dolphins are showing they can make it work. It's a tribute to the solid foundation Flores has established in less than two seasons in charge. And the rotation has Miami on the brink of making the playoffs just one season after the team appeared to be tanking its way into oblivion.

Imagine the Niners with a healthy QB Ralph Freso / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The 49ers are 6-9 and won't be going to the playoffs. But they also have a staggering number of injuries. Saturday's win at Arizona - which is still in the NFC playoff race - with C.J. Beathard at quarterback underscores the fact that Kyle Shanahan is one of the NFL's best coaches.

Yes, Shanahan is just 29-34 in four seasons as the Niners' head coach, but consider this:

Kyle Shanahan had one season with a healthy starting QB who's average and made the Super Bowl. Was 7 minutes away from winning. Imagine if the 49ers got a reliable upgrade at QB and the team stayed healthier. Sky is the limit

- Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) December 26, 2020

Just something to keep in mind as we head into an offseason in which there's likely going to be another quarterback surplus.

Here come the Bears, maybe Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

The Bears throttled the Jaguars to win their third in a row and position themselves for a possible playoff spot. Chicago will claim the NFC's No. 7 seed with a win next week at home against the Packers or a Cardinals loss at the Rams, a scenario that seemed out of the question less than a month ago.

But what about the long-term implications? ESPN's Adam Schefter seemed to indicate the Bears might want to retain quarterback Mitchell Trubisky based on his recent play. But a close reading of Schefter's report shows some other league executives think Chicago might be wise to hang on to Trubisky, which could be some deep-fake subterfuge from those other execs.

Yes, the Bears have scored 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1965. Yes, Trubisky has recorded an expected points added per play of 0.528 during that stretch, the league's third-best mark, according to Ben Baldwin's database. But Chicago has also played terrible defenses - Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville - in that span, and there's also Trubisky's overall body of work across four seasons.

In short, the Bears have painted themselves into a very strange spot. They're just good enough to maybe make the playoffs, but also just good enough to maybe think they have their quarterback of the future, right when it's time to pay him.

Packers' D comes through Stacy Revere / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Aaron Rodgers is going to make big throws, and Matt LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett's offense is going to scheme Rodgers into a lot of easy passes. This is a given. But if there's been a reason to doubt the Packers, it's their defense, which entered Week 16 ranked 18th in DVOA. Green Bay silenced those doubters by shutting down the Titans in a snowy Sunday night showdown that turned into a blowout.

The Packers did a lot of stuff with five defensive linemen, and they pinched the edges just enough to keep Derrick Henry from being much of a factor, despite his 98 rushing yards on 23 carries. Even if the NFC playoff race has to go through Lambeau Field, this was exactly the kind of performance the Packers are going to need to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 10 years.

Looks like Lamar is back Patrick Smith / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Ravens have won four in a row to climb back into the AFC playoff picture, and they've also done it with Lamar Jackson playing as well as anyone during that stretch.

Jackson's EPA/play since Week 13, per Baldwin's database, is 0.622, just behind Aaron Rodgers for the NFL's top spot over that span. Yes, Baltimore has beaten Dallas, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and the Giants, but, unlike Trubisky, Jackson has a league MVP on his resume.

The Ravens are looking a lot like a team the rest of the AFC might want to avoid in January.

Jaguars to get 1st pick Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images Sport / Getty

I guess some congratulations are in order for the Jaguars, who have wrapped up the No. 1 overall pick in the draft after losing 14 in a row in dreadful fashion. They will assuredly use it on Trevor Lawrence, a rare generational prospect around which to build.

Jacksonville also has lots of additional tools at its disposal to complement Lawrence:

In addition to likely clinching the first overall pick in the draft today, the Jaguars have the Rams' first-round and fourth-round picks, the Vikings' second-round pick and the Browns' fifth-round pick in 2021, plus the most salary cap space in the league. Jags are tending up.

- Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) December 27, 2020

Much will depend on who the Jaguars hire as their next head coach. It's a lesson the Jets, who will pick No. 2, know all too well. Sam Darnold was never considered a generational talent, but his three seasons under two coaches are a honking reminder that all quarterbacks need a good support system to thrive.

The Jags are officially on the clock, but their biggest decision will be to find Doug Marrone's replacement.

And so the NFC East comes down to this Ronald Martinez / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Eagles have officially been eliminated from NFC East contention, which seems like a mercy killing. But in the end, the league's clown car division will have an appropriately hilarious finish in which Philadelphia will still get to play a role.

Washington and Dallas are both 6-9, with the Giants right on their heels at 5-10. If Washington beats the Eagles in Philly next Sunday, Washington is your champion. But if Philadelphia beats Washington, then the winner of the Cowboys' game against New York takes the crown. A real thriller, huh?

Just one more week of pointing and laughing at all this, everyone. Savor it while you can.

Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.

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