Predicting the top 5 scorers for the 2021 NHL season
The race for the Art Ross is a compelling storyline each NHL season. Under this year's unique circumstances - particularly a shorter campaign and realigned divisions - the pursuit for the scoring title should be as intriguing as ever.
Health will be the most important factor for this season's scoring champion, so let's hope and assume a full season is in the cards for those who made this list.
5. Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs
Mark Blinch / National Hockey League / Getty2019-20 stats: 70 GP, 47 G, 33 A, 25 PPP
After establishing career highs in goals, points, and points per game last season, Matthews is poised for another massive season as the centerpiece of the Maple Leafs' high-octane attack.
Matthews ranked ninth in scoring in 2019-20 and was one goal away from earning a three-way tie for the Rocket Richard Trophy. After Toronto fired head coach Mike Babcock and replaced him with Sheldon Keefe, Matthews averaged almost two extra minutes of ice time at all strengths. If that lasts for the entire 2021 season, the young sniper should easily be among the league's most prolific producers.
Another factor benefiting Matthews' Art Ross chances is the Leafs' position in the North Division. Toronto is arguably the most talented team in Canada, and Matthews has put up some incredible numbers over his four-year career versus his closest rivals, including 22 points in 15 games against the Ottawa Senators and 17 points in 14 games against the Montreal Canadiens.
4. Jack Eichel, Sabres
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty2019-20 stats: 68 GP, 36 G, 42 A, 27 PPP
This could finally be the year the stars align for Eichel. That's not to suggest the Sabres captain hasn't produced in his career, but Eichel played at an MVP level last season, and some key roster reinforcements could help the 24-year-old fully breakout.
Eichel can now lineup alongside a fellow star in Taylor Hall, Buffalo's shocking offseason acquisition. If they're both healthy, that duo has the potential to be scary good at five-on-five and on the power play, where they'll likely be joined by Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, and Rasmus Dahlin. There are plenty of points to be had with that unit on the ice.
Bringing in Eric Staal to play behind Eichel should free up some ice. Staal isn't the player he once was, but the Sabres' second line is much stronger with him in the fold. Opponents now have more to think about when they take on Buffalo instead of zoning in on Eichel for 25 minutes per night.
3. Leon Draisaitl, Oilers
Andy Devlin / National Hockey League / Getty2019-20 stats: 71 GP, 43 G, 67 A, 44 PPP
Draisaitl was on a 127-point pace before the season shut down. He ended the campaign by winning the Art Ross and Hart trophies, led all skaters in points, points per game, and power-play points, and was the NHL's most utilized forward. That's quite an act to follow. It wouldn't be surprising to see him lead the league in scoring again, but it's only natural he regresses a touch.
The Oilers found a ton of success when they separated Draisaitl and Connor McDavid at five-on-five late in 2019, and Draisaitl's stats surprisingly improved. The German sniper collected plenty of points sharing a power play with McDavid after the split, but Draisaitl shot 21.7% at all strengths over that span, and that number just isn't sustainable.
Draisaitl stands to be among the league leaders in points again this year, but he probably won't be as dominant. He posted an incredible 1.55 points per game last season, but no player has put up a rate over 1.5 in back-to-back seasons since Jaromir Jagr at the turn of the century.
2. Connor McDavid, Oilers
Lars Baron / National Hockey League / Getty2019-20 stats: 64 GP, 34 G, 63 A, 43 PPP
It's hard to bet against McDavid in a scoring race, particularly if he's healthy all season. Edmonton's captain hasn't claimed the Art Ross in two seasons after winning the trophy in 2017 and 2018, earning runner-ups for the award in his most recent campaigns despite posting 1.49 and 1.52 points per game rates.
McDavid's ridiculous talent and production levels could have us eating our words for ranking him No. 2 on our list. He could be extra motivated to dominate in 2021 after the heavily-favored Oilers were embarrassingly ousted during the play-in round this past summer.
Despite all he's capable of, we still think McDavid will finish behind our next candidate.
1. Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty2019-20 stats: 69 GP, 35 G, 58 A, 31 PPP
You can debate MacKinnon versus McDavid all day long, but the Avalanche forward is in a better position to succeed this season. This juggernaut Colorado team was placed in the realigned West Division for 2021, meaning MacKinnon will have seven games apiece against the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, Arizona Coyotes, and Minnesota Wild. Simply put, he should feast.
MacKinnon established himself as one of the league's most dominant players years ago, and he's coming off his most impressive showing yet. The 25-year-old was on pace for 109 points when the regular season halted, then added 25 points in 15 playoff games.
He's capable of dominating for a full season, and we think this is the year MacKinnon claims a scoring crown and perhaps even more hardware.
Honorable mentions
- Artemi Panarin, Rangers
- Elias Pettersson, Canucks
- Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin, Penguins
- Mitch Marner, Maple Leafs
- Aleksander Barkov/Jonathan Huberdeau, Panthers
- Sebastian Aho, Hurricanes
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