Best bets to make/miss the playoffs: Regression looms for Canucks, Caps
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A condensed regular-season schedule that will see teams play 56 games in under four months promises to make this year's playoff sprint as intense as ever.
Each game's magnitude is amplified as clubs are slated to only play within their divisions, and the new format couldn't be simpler, with four teams from each group making the postseason.
Here are every team's odds of making the playoffs, followed by our favorite value bets.
| TEAM | MAKE | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -850 | +550 |
| Colorado Avalanche | -800 | +500 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -750 | +475 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | -750 | +450 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | -450 | +325 |
| Boston Bruins | -400 | +300 |
| St. Louis Blues | -320 | +250 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | -260 | +210 |
| Dallas Stars | -225 | +180 |
| Edmonton Oilers | -200 | +165 |
| Montreal Canadiens | -200 | +165 |
| Washington Capitals | -190 | +160 |
| Calgary Flames | -185 | +155 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | -180 | +150 |
| Nashville Predators | -115 | -115 |
| Vancouver Canucks | -115 | -115 |
| Minnesota Wild | +100 | -120 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +105 | -135 |
| Winnipeg Jets | +110 | -140 |
| Florida Panthers | +115 | -135 |
| New York Islanders | +120 | -150 |
| New York Rangers | +130 | -150 |
| San Jose Sharks | +230 | -280 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +270 | -340 |
| Arizona Coyotes | +270 | -340 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +300 | -400 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +375 | -550 |
| New Jersey Devils | +400 | -575 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +525 | -850 |
| Ottawa Senators | +800 | -2000 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +1200 | -4000 |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Minnesota Wild: Yes (+100)There might not be a preseason bet I like more than the Wild making the playoffs at even money. This is a solid hockey team facing minimal competition for fourth place in the West Division.
Minnesota is loaded on the back end with one of the strongest top-six units in the league, playing in front of an underrated goaltending tandem with Alex Stalock and newly acquired Cam Talbot. The Wild aren't simply going to outscore teams, but they'll generate a lot more offense than in recent years. This young forward group is primed to take a step forward, led by budding superstar Kevin Fiala and exciting rookie Kirill Kaprizov.
In a top-heavy West Division, the Wild shouldn't have much issue rounding out the playoff field behind the Avalanche, Golden Knights, and Blues. The Coyotes severely lack firepower. San Jose is spiraling toward a rebuild with a depleted bottom-six and miserable goaltending situation. The Ducks and Kings will safely assume the role of bottom-feeders. The path is clear as day for the Wild to return to the postseason in 2021.
Washington Capitals: No (+160)The Capitals, who last missed the playoffs in the 2013-14 season and won the Cup in 2018, are still being viewed by the masses as this perennial championship contender. But cracks are forming under the surface, and the bottom will fall out on this team sooner than we may realize.
Washington is one of the NHL's oldest teams, and that's not a recipe for success with rest days in short supply this year. Also, regression looms for a club whose underlying numbers weren't nearly as impressive as its record suggested last season. Depth isn't the Capitals' issue, but the declining production of their top stars upfront is a problem, creating warranted skepticism as to whether they can still perform at the elite level needed to succeed. Defensively, they are average at best, while 23-year-old Ilya Samsonov is no sure thing in goal.
Washington has been placed in the ultra-competitive East Division under this new format. The Bruins, Penguins, and Flyers will claim three divisional playoff spots, leaving the Capitals to fight for the final slot. The Rangers, Devils, and Sabres are all young, hungry, and vastly improved, while the Islanders still aren't getting the respect they deserve. This line offers great value.
Vancouver Canucks: No (-115)Coming off an exemplary playoff run with their young core, it's assumed the Canucks will continue their ascent in 2021. That's hardly a safe assumption. Vancouver's postseason success came on the back of good fortune more than anything, managing just a 40.8% expected-goals rate (xGF%). It was a common theme all season for the Canucks, who ended the regular season bottom 10 in Corsi percentage and bottom five in xGF%, allowing the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes.
The team was bailed out consistently by the heroics of the now-departed Jacob Markstrom and still barely reached the postseason. It leaves a massive void in Vancouver's net that isn't going to be filled by Thatcher Demko and Braden Holtby. Demko turned heads in the playoffs, but his abbreviated run was a flash in the pan. He posted a pedestrian .905 save percentage in the regular season, and the Canucks played .500 hockey with him between the pipes. Holtby, meanwhile, was legitimately bad last season and his best days are clearly behind him.
In addition to the downgrade in net and looming regression, the Canucks possess a very weak supporting cast for their elite young core. Vancouver's bottom-six is among the league's worst, and its third pairing is barely replacement level following a disappointing offseason. In a year where depth will prove vital, the Canucks' lack thereof will see them take a step back in a very competitive North Division.
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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