Wild Card Weekend player prop guide: Matchups to exploit in Saturday's games

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Instead of cherry-picking our favorite player props and sending them your way, we figured we'd broaden your scope and present all the data you need to attack the market successfully this weekend.

We'll be throwing numbers at you from every which way, so get out the notepad and try to keep up.

Here's everything you need to know for Saturday's slate.

Colts @ Bills (-6, 51.5), 1:05 p.m. ET

There aren't many ways to attack this Colts team. Indianapolis allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season, so don't bank on a big day on the ground for Josh Allen. It also gave up the third-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs, so under rushing yards for Devin Singletary (29.5) and Zack Moss (36.5) - two low-volume backs already - warrant a close look. The Colts' passing defense is league average, which means we can expect another high-volume passing game from the Bills on Saturday after they threw the ball over 60% of the time this season.

Buffalo has tightened up defensively, but there are still a couple of areas to exploit here. Firstly, the Bills allowed more rushing yards to running backs this season than any other team playing on Wild Card Weekend. Hello, Jonathan Taylor (over/under 74.5). Secondly, no team allowed more receptions to tight ends in 2020 than Buffalo, which also gave up the second-most receiving yards to the position.

Add in the fact that the Bills allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers, and we should see Philip Rivers target his stable of tight ends early and often in this one. There are some low numbers to exploit here with Jack Doyle (19.5), Trey Burton (13.5), and Mo Alie-Cox (12.5).

Both of these teams allowed just 23 field-goal attempts this season, tied for third-fewest in the NFL. The Colts' red-zone offense has had its struggles this year, but Indianapolis knows it needs touchdowns to win here and Frank Reich is known to be aggressive. Taking the under on point totals for kickers Rodrigo Blankenship (6.5) and Tyler Bass (7.5) is a decent look.

Rams @ Seahawks (-3.5, 42.5), 4:40 p.m.

Looking at the season as a whole, the Seahawks were terrible against opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. They allowed the most completions - over 20 more than the next-closest team - and second-most passing yards while allowing the most receptions to wide receivers. But those numbers are largely products of a bad start: Seattle allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards over the final five weeks and drastically improved in the other two categories as well.

But as they tightened up against receivers, the Seahawks softened against tight ends, allowing the third-most receiving yards to the position since Week 10. A lot of Rams lines aren't yet posted due to uncertainty at the quarterback position, but Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett overs are intriguing.

Teams love to throw on the Seahawks, who allowed the fifth-fewest rushing attempts and rushing yards to running backs this season. Whoever starts at quarterback for L.A., over on both completions and attempts is a strong look, especially in what should be a negative game script. The Rams could use a short passing game as their rushing attack after Seattle allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing running backs this season; look for Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown to get involved in the passing game.

On the other side of the ball, this is shaping up to be an excellent spot to fade Russell Wilson and Seattle's wide receivers. DK Metcalf versus Jalen Ramsey is obviously a major talking point, but the Rams excelled in the passing game as a whole this season.

L.A.'s secondary surrendered the third-fewest passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in 2020 and the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers - 150 fewer than the next-best team. The Rams also gave up a league-low 17 passing touchdowns, with just seven of those to wide receivers - also a league-best mark. Wilson threw just one touchdown in two games against the Rams this season, and it was to tight end Jacob Hollister. He's also thrown just three touchdown passes in his last three playoff games.

In addition to their suffocating secondary, the Rams are stout against running backs. They allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to the position this season and the fewest since Week 7. You likely couldn't pay me to bet a Seahawks player prop over on Saturday.

Buccaneers (-8, 44.5) @ Washington, 8:15 p.m.

The last time we saw Tom Brady in the playoffs, he threw for just 209 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception in a loss to the Titans. This Buccaneers offense is hardly last year's Patriots attack, but this is another tough matchup for the future Hall of Famer.

Washington allowed the fourth-fewest completions and second-fewest passing yards to quarterbacks this season. It also gave up the second-fewest touchdowns to wide receivers (just 10 in 16 games) and fourth-fewest yards to tight ends (second-fewest since Week 6). While much of that can be attributed to a ferocious pass rush, don't expect Brady to pad the stats in this one. Under 289.5 passing yards for Brady is at even money and is one of my favorite bets of the weekend. I also lean to the under for attempts (37.5) and completions (24.5).

We're still waiting to learn the status of Mike Evans, but there will be some strong under looks when lines are finally posted for Tampa's wide receivers. Another favorable angle is for Brady to score a touchdown at +500. Washington allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, and its tough passing defense means a patented Brady sneak at the goal line is within reason.

When Washington's offense is on the field, expect a heavy dose of passes despite Alex Smith's recent struggles. Teams don't even try to run on the Buccaneers, who allowed the fewest rush attempts and yards to running backs this season; their 960 yards allowed were 150 fewer than the next-best team. Antonio Gibson will struggle to reach his 45.5 total, especially in what will likely be a negative game script.

Instead, look for Washington to turn to short passes - Smith's specialty - as a replacement for the run game. I expect a ton of dump-offs from Smith against a Tampa defense that allowed the second-most completions to quarterbacks and the most receptions to running backs this year. This has all the makings of a J.D. McKissic game, with Gibson also getting involved through the air.

McKissic over 4.5 receptions (-115) and Gibson over 2.5 (+120) are good looks. Smith over attempts and completions are, too, but those lines have yet to be posted at the time of writing.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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