Bucs at Saints betting preview: Can Brady best Brees to avoid sweep?

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The third time's the charm, right? That's what the Buccaneers are hoping for in this week's rematch with the Saints (-3, 51.5). New Orleans won the first two meetings this year by a combined 46 points and is favored to pull off the first three-game sweep of Tom Brady by any opponent in his storied career.

Trends and results

Only 22 clubs in the Super Bowl era have beaten another team twice in the regular season and faced them a third time in the playoffs, according to ESPN Stats & Information. None of them won the first two meetings as convincingly as the Saints, who beat the Buccaneers by 11 in Week 1 before a 38-3 romp in Week 9.

Those previous 22 teams went just 10-11-1 against the spread, and the three that won by the biggest margins in the regular season lost outright as sizable favorites in the playoff rematch. Brady is also 20-12-2 ATS in his career against teams that beat him the previous two times, including 8-4-1 ATS as an underdog in that spot.

Can he sustain those trends against his red-hot opponents? The Saints are 9-1 ATS dating back to that Week 9 win and have gone 7-1 ATS this year when Michael Thomas plays, as he did in last week's win over the Bears. That victory snapped an 0-4-1 ATS streak for New Orleans in the playoffs, with all four losses coming as home chalk.

Brady is 39-17-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, winning 34 of those games straight up. Yet he's a disappointing 2-5 ATS / 2-5 SU against Drew Brees, his worst record versus any quarterback he's faced at least five times. He's also 4-9-1 ATS in his last 14 contests following a win, including 1-4 ATS in his last five.

X-factor

Buccaneers' passing attack vs. Saints' defense

All of the attention this week is on Brady versus Brees, which makes sense from a narrative standpoint. Really, the focus should be on Brady versus the Saints' defense, which forced him into two of his worst games of the season.

The 43-year-old has struggled against pressure this year. That was never more evident than in the two contests against New Orleans, which sacked him three times each game - tied for Brady's highest sack count all year - and held him to a combined 448 passing yards, two passing TDs, and five interceptions.

Brady has looked like a different quarterback since then, throwing for 2,616 yards and 22 touchdowns to just five interceptions. In fact, he leads the league in passing yards (1,714), passing TDs (14), yards per attempt (9.7), and PFF passing grade (94.3) since Week 14, according to PFF.

He's also been sacked just 11 times across those eight games, with three of those coming last week courtesy of Washington's elite pass rush. Can New Orleans turn up the heat this week? The Saints blitzed slightly less than Washington this year but had a higher pressure rate (25.8%) and identical hurry rate (10%), and their defense is ranked No. 2 in total DVOA and weighted DVOA.

The Bucs' offense ranks third and second in those categories, respectively, setting up a compelling strength-versus-strength matchup Sunday. Can the Saints fluster Brady for the third time in as many tries, or will he make them pay this time around?

Best bet

Buccaneers +3

I bet on the Buccaneers in both of these teams' prior meetings, so perhaps take this with a grain of salt. But I don't see the Saints pulling off the trifecta. Tampa Bay is the NFL's only team with a top-five unit on both sides of the ball, and the elite passing game that we all projected before the year is finally rounding into form.

The Saints are hotter, but their offense has enjoyed just one standout performance since that Week 9 win. That's a lot of pressure to put on their defense against the peak form of this Bucs offense. I'll gladly take the points on the team eager to avenge past ills.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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