Championship weekend over/under best bets: Offenses will turn it loose

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The divisional round was a breeze for scoreboard operators.

Following three straight lower-scoring games to close out the weekend, postseason totals of 50 or higher are currently on a 19-9 run to the under. With four top-five DVOA offenses set to take the field this weekend in the conference championships, will the trend flip?

Let's preview the totals for Sunday's highly anticipated matchups.

Buccaneers @ Packers (-3, 51);

It took the Buccaneers' offense a while to get going. Granted, it was quarterback Tom Brady's first season with a new supporting cast, tight end Rob Gronkowski had come out of retirement, and arguably the biggest wild card of them all - wide receiver Antonio Brown - didn't join until Week 9.

What the Buccaneers have done over the last five games is what we expected from this unit.

Tampa's averaged 36.6 points per contest, cashing all five team total overs. Although the competition's been light, Brady's logged at least 365 yards in four of five, with 14 total touchdown passes over that span.

The Packers rank just No. 17 in DVOA defense, and this could be a wake-up call considering the competition they've faced of late. Over the last seven weeks, the average DVOA offense rank of Green Bay's opponents is 17.8. How could you not like the matchup for the Bucs' offense, ranking No. 3 in that department?

PFF ranks Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander tops at his position, but Brady has plenty of mismatches elsewhere, particularly in the middle of the field. His tight ends should feast against the Packers' Krys Barnes and Christian Kirksey, who rank No. 67 and 61 out of 79 linebackers in coverage grade.

Meanwhile, it'll be business as usual for the Packers' offense. They've scored at least 30 points in seven of the last eight and hit the last six playoff overs with Rodgers under center.

Let the seasoned vets sling it all around Lambeau with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Pick: Over 51

Bills @ Chiefs (-3, 53.5);

I've already recommended the first-half over in Bills-Chiefs, so let's stick to the script and play the full game.

Kansas City slowed the contest down in its 26-17 win over Buffalo during the regular season. Both teams had just nine drives, but the Bills were limited to only 50 plays and 4.1 yards per. However, the defensive unit they faced in Week 6 is a whole lot different than the one they'll draw Sunday.

The Chiefs ranked No. 6 in DVOA pass defense through the first nine weeks of the season, per Football Outsiders. Since then, they've dipped all the way down to No. 29. A shootout would be welcomed by quarterback Josh Allen, who's helped Buffalo cash four straight team total overs as an underdog.

As for the Chiefs' offense, it might be scratching the surface of a breakout game. The unit scored only 22 points last weekend, but it was running like a well-oiled machine: 7.0 yards per play, zero punts, and points on the first four drives.

Look for head coach Andy Reid to make it 5-1 to the over the last six in January.

Pick: Over 53.5

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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