Why bettors should consider the revenge angle in Super Bowl
For the first time in almost a decade, this year's Super Bowl features two teams that faced each other in the regular season. If past rematches are any indication, bettors can expect a different result this time around.
When the Chiefs (-3.5) face the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV - two months after Kansas City's 27-24 win in Week 12 - it'll mark the 14th time in NFL history that the title game is a rematch of a regular-season contest. The regular-season loser has won seven of those 13 games with a 6-6-1 record against the spread, but a deeper dive into those numbers reveals a much stronger showing from teams in a revenge spot.
Here's a list of the previous 13 teams that fell to an opponent in the regular season before facing them again in the Super Bowl:
| SUPER BOWL (YEAR) | MATCHUP | RESULT | SU | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLVII (2012) | Patriots (-2.5) vs. Giants | 17-21 | L | L |
| XLII (2008) | Giants (+12) vs. Patriots | 17-14 | W | W |
| XXXVI (2002) | Patriots (+14) vs. Rams | 20-17 | W | W |
| XXXIV (2000) | Rams (-7) vs. Titans | 23-16 | W | P |
| XXIX (1995) | Chargers (+18.5) vs. 49ers | 26-49 | L | L |
| XXVIII (1994) | Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Bills | 30-13 | W | W |
| XXV (1991) | Giants (+7) vs. Bills | 20-19 | W | W |
| XXI (1987) | Broncos (+9.5) vs. Giants | 20-39 | L | L |
| XX (1986) | Patriots (+10) vs. Bears | 10-46 | L | L |
| XVIII (1984) | Raiders (+3) vs. Redskins | 38-9 | W | W |
| XVI (1982) | Bengals (+1) vs. 49ers | 21-26 | L | L |
| XV (1981) | Raiders (+3) vs. Eagles | 27-10 | W | W |
| XII (1978) | Broncos (+6) vs. Cowboys | 10-27 | L | L |
A quick glance at the chart reveals just how well teams have done in recent years avenging a regular-season defeat. Clubs in that spot are 5-2 straight up in the Super Bowl with a 4-2-1 ATS record since 1991.
Also, consider that just three of those 13 teams seeking revenge were favored in the Super Bowl. Underdogs have gone 5-5 SU despite catching 8.4 points per game in those 10 contests, and the two 3-point underdogs in that span won by a combined 46 points.
The first meeting's result clearly doesn't dictate how the rematch will go - but the margin does. Four of those regular-season games were decided by eight or more points and the losers in those meetings subsequently went 0-4 SU/ATS in the Super Bowl, losing by a combined 81 points.
Conversely, teams that fell by a touchdown or less in the regular season - as the Bucs did this year - were 6-2-1 ATS with seven outright victories in the Super Bowl. When that regular-season margin is three points or less? The losing clubs went 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in the revenge spot, outscoring their opponents by nine points per game.
Beware Brady's revengeThe last three rematches in the title game all involved Tom Brady - as every Super Bowl trend seems to do. The 43-year-old helped the Patriots avenge their loss to the Rams in 2002 before he fell in the second meeting against the Giants in 2008 and got swept by New York in 2012.
Brady stands at 13-7 ATS in his career when playing a team that beat him earlier in the year, but he's just 4-6 ATS in the playoffs. He lost five straight in that spot before beating the Saints in the divisional round, avenging both of his regular-season losses to New Orleans.
Still, Brady has dominated teams the second time around in recent years. Since the 2016 season, he's a perfect 5-0 ATS versus a team he faced in the regular season, winning by an average of 11.6 points. That record includes three straight wins as an underdog in that spot - one against the Chiefs in 2019 and this year's wins over the Saints and Packers.
Brady will have his hands full this time against Kansas City, which is 3-0 ATS in playoff rematches since that 2019 loss. Can the Chiefs keep Brady at bay this time around, or is revenge once again on the menu in a Super Bowl encore?
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.