Betting against Tom Brady as an underdog rarely goes well

In 2002, the Patriots were among the biggest underdogs in Super Bowl history. Tom Brady, in his first year as a starter, had to win as a road underdog in the conference title game just to reach the big stage. His reward was a date with the juggernaut Rams (-14), who had already hoisted a Lombardi trophy two years earlier.

Brady wasn't fazed. He engineered a game-winning drive to capture the first of his six Super Bowl wins in nine appearances, sparking a legacy of stellar play as an underdog in the process. Nineteen years later, in his first season with the Buccaneers, he'll face a similar challenge in Super Bowl LV against the high-powered Chiefs (-3.5) - the first team to be favored against Brady in the Super Bowl following that iconic 2002 upset.

Since he took over as a starter in 2001, Brady is 38-17-1 against the spread as an underdog with 33 straight up wins in 56 tries. He's 6-3 ATS/SU in the playoffs, including 3-0 ATS over the last three seasons and 4-1 ATS this campaign when catching points.

But Brady's never been in a spot like this in his 20 years as a starter. With Tampa Bay being the first team to ever play in the Super Bowl in its home stadium, this will unofficially be Brady's first playoff game as a home underdog. However, he's 11-1 ATS in that spot in the regular season, outscoring opponents by 10 points per game with nine outright wins.

Here are some notable performances by Brady as an underdog ahead of Super Bowl LV:

Patriots (+5) at Broncos, AFC Championship Game (Jan. 19, 2014)

Before this season, the last time Brady caught at least 3.5 points in a playoff game was 2014, when the Patriots were sizable 'dogs against Peyton Manning and the Broncos' all-time great offense.

New England lost by 10 points in that contest, but Brady wasn't to blame. The 36-year-old quarterback finished 24 of 38 for 277 yards and was responsible for two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a failed comeback bid. However, Manning outdueled him, torching the Patriots' defense for 400 yards en route to the AFC title.

Patriots (+3) at Chiefs, AFC Championship Game (Jan. 20, 2019)

While Brady has been an underdog in the Super Bowl before, this game feels like the closest comparison to what he'll face in 10 days.

Once again, New England squared off against a record-setting offense in the Chiefs, led by 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes in his first major playoff spot. The young star delivered with three touchdowns, though Brady bested him with a go-ahead scoring drive in the final seconds of regulation and another in overtime to win a 37-31 thriller.

Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Chiefs, Week 12 (Nov. 29, 2020)

The last time Brady was an underdog at home was also one of his just three outright losses in that spot in 12 tries. The Buccaneers surrendered 17 points to the Chiefs in the first quarter but still covered behind a valiant effort from Brady, who threw for 345 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns in a 27-24 loss.

That defeat could set the stage for a redemptive effort in Super Bowl LV. Five of the last seven clubs to lose to a team in the regular season and face that squad in the Super Bowl won the rematch. Teams that lose the first meeting by three points or less are 5-1 in the Super Bowl encore.

Buccaneers (+2.5) at Saints, divisional round (Jan. 17, 2021)

Even a pair of double-digit regular-season losses couldn't deter the Bucs in the third meeting with their division rival. Brady threw two scores in an otherwise quiet outing, while Tampa Bay's defense flustered Drew Brees in one of the worst games of his illustrious career.

The win snapped Brady's five-game playoff losing streak against teams that beat him in the regular season. It also marked his 17th double-digit victory as an underdog, which is as many contests as he's lost ATS in that spot.

Buccaneers (+3.5) at Packers, NFC Championship Game (Jan. 24, 2021)

Last week's 31-26 win over the Packers typified Brady's success throughout his career when the odds are against him. The Hall of Fame quarterback was electric early in the game and, despite throwing three interceptions, still extended his record to 16-9 ATS when catching more than three points.

The win also sets up another historic - and ironic - underdog feat for Brady. Since 2002, only six teams have been underdogs in the Super Bowl coming off back-to-back playoff wins as 'dogs. Those clubs went 6-0 ATS in the title game, with half of those victories coming against Brady. Will he flip the script in his second stint as a Super Bowl underdog?

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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