How to bet 10 of the most popular Super Bowl game props
While there's plenty to break down in this Super Bowl LV matchup between the Chiefs (-3.5) and Buccaneers - which we did Wednesday - the real prize for bettors is the avalanche of prop bets that surround the NFL's biggest game.
Some props are yearly staples, but many bettors aren't sure how to assess a fair price or how likely a specific prop is to hit in the big game. Fear not - we dove deep into the numbers to analyze 10 of the most popular Super Bowl props and see which side holds more value this year.
Will the first score be a touchdown?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Touchdown | -210 |
| Any other | +175 |
Touchdowns have been hard to come by early in recent Super Bowls. The first score has been a field goal in each of the last three years - all of which included Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes - and it's been a touchdown just 25 times in Super Bowl history, including four in the last 13 years.
Pick: Any other (+175)
Will the winning team score first?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Yes | -165 |
| No | +145 |
The 49ers got out to an early lead last year before falling apart late. Don't let that deter you from betting "yes" on this prop, though. The first team to score has won 36 of 54 Super Bowls (66.6%), including eight of the last 10 and 10 of the last 13. All of those suggest value on the first scorer winning outright.
Pick: Yes (-165)
Will the winning team score last?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Yes | -185 |
| No | +165 |
While scoring first has been important in recent years, scoring last has been almost mandatory for the winning side. The last team to score has won the Super Bowl 40 times (74.1%), including seven straight and a ridiculous 22 of the last 25 years. With a close game expected, "yes" is even more appealing.
Pick: Yes (-185)
Will either team score three consecutive times?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Yes | -260 |
| No | +200 |
This is becoming more popular each year and has a reputation for always cashing, but that simply isn't the case. "Yes" has hit in 37 of 54 Super Bowls (68.5%), short of the 72.2% hit rate implied by these odds, and it's happened nine of the last 17 years. It's more likely to happen than not, but the value is still on "no" here.
Pick: No (+200)
Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Yes | +240 |
| No | -300 |
These odds may seem short, but this happens far more than you might think. There's been a non-offensive touchdown in 24 of 54 Super Bowls (44.4%), and it's happened in seven of the last 14 Super Bowls. Both scream value on the plus-money side.
Pick: Yes (+240)
Yardage of shortest touchdown?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 yards | +120 |
| Under 1.5 yards | -155 |
I broke down this prop in full detail earlier this week, as it's one of my favorite values come this time of year. The shortest touchdown has been under 1.5 yards in 21 of the last 31 years and four of the last five, with three goal-line scores a year ago. This price doesn't dissuade me one bit.
Pick: Under 1.5 yards (-155)
Yardage of longest touchdown?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Over 45.5 yards | -110 |
| Under 45.5 yards | -110 |
If you can detach yourself from visions of Tyreek Hill running roughshod through Tampa Bay's secondary, there's value to be had on the under here. The longest touchdown has been under 45.5 yards in five of the last six years and seven of the last 10, averaging 42.4 yards over that stretch. It only takes one play, but the chances of that play happening aren't high.
Pick: Under 45.5 yards (-110)
Number of players to attempt a pass?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | +170 |
| Under 2.5 | -200 |
It's no fun to lay heavy juice on the under of a novelty prop, but recent history suggests it's the right play here. At least three players attempted a pass in just five of the last 25 Super Bowls. Three of those came this decade, but that sample size pales in comparison to the larger trend.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-200)
Will there be a two-point conversion attempt?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Yes | -135 |
| No | +105 |
Don't be surprised to see "yes" as the favorite here - there's been at least one two-point conversion attempt in 14 of the last 26 Super Bowls and a staggering eight of the last 11. If this game reaches the scoring highs that oddsmakers expect, that only helps the chances of at least one attempt.
Pick: Yes (-135)
Will the last play be a quarterback kneel?| BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Yes | -180 |
| No | +140 |
The price on this prop suggests that we'd see a kneel to end the majority of Super Bowls, but that isn't the case. The Super Bowl has ended in the victory formation seven times in the last 14 years, including just three times in the last nine.
Pick: No (+140)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.