2021 NFL win totals: 3 teams to target early
Now that the curtain's officially closed on the 2020 NFL campaign, we can dig into next season's win totals. They've yet to be released, but it never hurts to get a head start.
A lot will happen from now until Week 1 - the draft, free agency, scheduling, a quarterback carousel, and more - but here are three intriguing teams to keep tabs on once the numbers drop.
Go bullish on the BucsThe Buccaneers are the reigning Super Bowl champions and led by Tom Brady. Those two factors alone will trigger the public to bet them.
Digging a little deeper, Tampa could do a lot more damage on the heels of an 11-5 regular-season record.
Here are the Buccaneers' 2021 opponents:
| Home | Away |
|---|---|
| Falcons | Falcons |
| Panthers | Panthers |
| Saints | Saints |
| Cowboys | Rams |
| Giants | Patriots |
| Bills | Eagles |
| Bears | Jets |
| Dolphins | Washington |
Talk about a seemingly perfect draw.
The Buccaneers get two more games at home, draw both the AFC and NFC East - which went a combined for 55-72-1 in 2020 - play only five teams who made the postseason this past year, and travel only once outside the Eastern time zone.
Over bettors might want to pounce right away on the win total - but beware of betting the Bucs to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
The Chargers are positive regression candidates ... againThis is going to shock you, but the Chargers underwhelmed in 2020.
Coming into this past season, the Chargers had underachieved in four of their previous five seasons. They were deserving of roughly two more wins in three of those campaigns, which is a whole new level of yikes.
| Year | Wins | Expected Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 7.8 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 12 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| 2017 | 9.7 | 10.5 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 5 | 7.7 | +2.7 |
| 2015 | 4 | 5.9 | +1.9 |
So what did the Bolts do in 2020? They accidentally found a way to start rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, and all he did was rank top-10 in passer rating and average more than 300 passing yards through his first seven outings. Naturally, L.A. went 1-6 over that span, a far cry from its expected 4.8 wins. Overall the Chargers went 7-9, suffering five losses by five points or fewer.
That's been the name of the game for L.A., which should be a "sleeper" once again. Herbert looks like a budding star, there's still talent littered throughout the roster, and gone is head coach Anthony Lynn who's become synonymous with one-score losses and questionable coaching decisions.
I'd say the Chargers have all the ammo to surpass their win total, but, of course, we've heard that before.
Buy low on the 49ersWhat a wild ride it's been for the 49ers over the last three years: 4-12 to 13-3 to 6-10. After winning the NFC in 2019, San Francisco finished last in the division, falling well short of its win total of 10.5. But was it more than just a Super Bowl hangover?
The 49ers were the only NFL team to lose more than 300 man-games to injury last season. They went 1-3 in contests decided by four points or fewer and should have won 7.6 games based on point differential. Estimated wins - which account for DVOA and emphasize important, specific situations - projected the club for a whopping 8.7 victories; those 2.7 added wins were the most of any team.
San Francisco finished the season No. 11 in overall DVOA - better than the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, and Washington. The 49ers could once again see another drastic change in fortunes next season.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.