Hamilton’s rising COVID cases ‘a very risky situation’
Hamilton is among 24 public health units in Ontario with increasing COVID cases that have been flagged in provincial projections as early indicators of danger.
We still face a very risky situation," Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto said Thursday. This growth isn't random. It's a function of how loosening public health measures, increased mobility and growth in new variants come together."
Hamilton's weekly rate of new cases per 100,000 population was 65 on Wednesday. Less than a month ago, it was 32 per 100,000 on Feb. 13. More than 70 per cent of Ontario's 34 public health units are seeing a growth in infections.
Mobility is increasing and with that a risk of greater spread," said Brown. The proportion of cases that are new variants of concern is also increasing steadily. This means the risk of being exposed to someone with the disease has increased. It also means that the risk of catching the disease has increased."
Hamilton saw a big jump in presumed variant cases Thursday to 175 from 128 the day before. The city also has five confirmed cases of B.1.1.7, the variant that originated in the United Kingdom.
The variants of concern continue to spread across Ontario and our ability to control the rate of spread will determine whether we return to normal or whether we face a third wave of infection," said Brown. Our behaviour over the next few weeks is critical in determining the quality of our summer."
Public Health Ontario reported Thursday that Hamilton's reproduction number was 1.15, which is the highest it has been since Jan. 7. This key metric needs to stay below 0.7 in the presence of the more contagious variants. Even with the original COVID virus, it needed to be below 1.0.
There is a lot of uncertainty right now and with that ... a lot of risk and a lot of danger," Brown said while describing two pandemics playing out.
One with the early variants under control and one with the new variants not under control," said Brown. At the same time that the early variants are declining the new variants are increasing substantially."
The city reported 56 new COVID infections Thursday to bring the pandemic total to 11,032 on the anniversary of the first case in Hamilton and Halton.
The number of active cases is 454, which is the highest since Feb. 7.
The saving grace we have in all of this is that the variants of concern do react the same way ... to the public health measures," said Brown. If we are able to make sure that people are able to adhere to those measures, then you actually can get that coming back down again."
What's on the line was clear as the province applied the emergency lockdown brake Thursday in the Sudbury public health region due in part to rapidly spreading outbreaks.
Hamilton has 28 ongoing outbreaks as of Thursday. Four are linked to the variants: Electromart Inc., AbleLiving Services York Supportive Housing, the West 5th Campus of St. Joseph's Healthcare and Hamilton General Hospital's Unit 5 West.
The outbreak at Hamilton General climbed to 23 cases Wednesday, including 14 patients.
The number of cases also went up at West 5th, where six staff, who do not have contact with patients, have tested positive.
New outbreaks were declared March 10 at Good Shepherd Women's Services at the Admiral Inn after one resident tested positive; DHL Logistics in Mount Hope, where three staff are infected; and St. Lawrence Catholic Elementary School in the North End, which has two cases in students.
Outbreaks were declared over at Amica Dundas, St. Eugene Catholic Elementary School, Queensdale Elementary School and Wesley Urban Ministries Day Centre.
The city reported two deaths Thursday, including a senior age 80 and over and a resident aged 50 to 59. It is only the third COVID death of someone in their 50s in Hamilton. There have been a total of six pandemic deaths in people under the age of 60.
In contrast, more than 70 per cent of the city's 291 pandemic deaths have been among those age 80 and older.
The city no longer provides information on individual deaths so it's unknown if either were linked to an outbreak.
However, the first COVID death was reported at seniors' home West Valley Suites, where seven are infected.
Overall, the province has seen a major drop in COVID deaths and cases in long-term-care homes due to vaccination, which was hailed as a clear success" by provincial projections.
There is emerging evidence that vaccination not only reduces the risk of death and hospitalizations, it also reduces the risks of catching and passing on the disease," said Brown. That evidence, if it holds, is profound. It would mean that each vaccine protects the person receiving it and it can help others who have not yet received it by reducing the risk of transmission."
The pandemic is now seen as a race between vaccination and the variants. Hamilton will open a clinic March 22 at FirstOntario Centre that can vaccinate up to 3,000 a day. It will be the city's third fixed-site clinic with a fourth planned for Rosedale Arena. There are also a number of mobile and pop-up community clinics. In addition, some family doctors will start vaccinating Saturday.
Vaccination will start to have an impact on case rates" said Brown. But given where we are ... that is really still two or three weeks out."
Hamilton had 49 COVID patients hospitalized as of Thursday. The number of patients transferred from overburdened hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area is up to 59, including 28 at Burlington's Joseph Brant Hospital, 13 to Hamilton General, 11 to the Charlton Campus of St. Joseph's and seven to Niagara Health Services.
Provincewide there has been a substantial decline in hospitalizations, which is now starting to level off," said Brown. But we have not seen the same decline in ICU occupancy. Part of this is because we see some very sick patients staying very long in the ICU."
Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com