Fantasy: 3 free agents destined to disappoint with new team

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All the excitement that free agency brings makes it easy to forget that many players signing deals will ultimately let their new teams down.

After outlining players we expect to gain fantasy value in free agency, it's time to identify players who are primed to disappoint.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Nic Antaya / Getty Images Sport / Getty

When a 24-year-old receiver with a 111-catch, 1,426-yard, seven-touchdown season on his resume hits the open market, NFL teams and fantasy managers would normally fight to acquire him. This time around, unfortunately, it's buyer beware.

The big stat lines that Smith-Schuster posted in his first two seasons playing alongside Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh look much different than his last two campaigns after Brown's departure. Smith-Schuster has been exposed as a limited player who can produce adequate numbers when peppered with targets but not someone who adds much value to his touches.

The former second-round pick saw his yards per catch decline dramatically from 13.1 in 2019 to a career-low 8.6 this past season. While some of that can be attributed to Ben Roethlisberger's declining skills, subpar quarterback play didn't stop the Steelers' other wideouts like Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool from delivering a YPC above 10 and many more impact performances. Smith-Schuster's lone 100-yard game in 2020 came in Week 17 and required a staggering 19 targets to get him there.

Despite ending the year tied for 13th in targets among receivers, Smith-Schuster finished 60th in total air yards, according to airyards.com. Volume will be important for him no matter where he signs, and that's worrisome since he's leaving the league's highest-volume passing attack.

Given his age, name recognition, and former production, Smith-Schuster is poised to secure one of the bigger free-agent contracts at his position this year. And with a splashy new deal making headlines, his fantasy stock is sure to be overinflated. Don't be fooled, he's a volume-dependent slot receiver and not the burgeoning No. 1 option he appeared to be developing into early in his career.

James Conner Joe Sargent / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Steelers will likely be forced to watch several players leave in free agency while the club battles with a reduced salary cap. Like Smith-Schuster, running back Conner will become available when the new league year begins, and is almost certain to sign with a new club.

It will be interesting to see what kind of market he'll command as a ball carrier who's missed 14 games over his four NFL campaigns and turns 26 years old in May. Though he started the 2020 season with three 100-yard efforts in his first five outings, Conner ultimately broke down as the year went along, and the Steelers were forced to reduce his workload because of it.

After his breakout in 2018 - when he slid into an ideal situation vacated by Le'Veon Bell and averaged 113 total yards per game - Conner's numbers dipped to 71.5 and 72 yards per contest the last two seasons, respectively.

Given Conner's questionable durability and being two years removed from his one productive season, it's hard to envision a team being willing to trust him as its unchallenged lead back entering Week 1. You can expect him to find a home as a contributor in a committee backfield, and based on what we've seen from other comparable runners at this stage of their careers, it might take a while for Conner to receive an offer.

It's possible that Conner will pop up on the fantasy radar with a successful stint as a spot starter, but he'll be a risky player to draft regardless of his landing spot.

T.Y. Hilton Justin Casterline / Getty Images Sport / Getty

When receivers turn 30 years old, fantasy managers need to be mindful of the type of players they are and if they're transitioning to a new phase in their careers. Some stars like Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald can enjoy success well into their 30s; for others, the drop-off can be much more swift.

Hilton, who turned 31 last season, is coming off his second straight disappointing campaign, and it's safe to wonder whether his best days are behind him. Aside from a four-game stretch when he was able to take advantage of the Texans' and Raiders' subpar defenses, Hilton failed to reach 70 yards in any other contest.

Wideouts reliant on speed are often the most susceptible to a sharp decline, and that appears to be the case with Hilton. His yards per game have dropped below 60 in each of the last two seasons - the first time that's happened since his rookie year in 2012 - and only so much of that can be pinned on the Colts' quarterback play.

The veteran also faces an uncertain future with a new club. His name will still draw headlines wherever he signs, but his days of being a 1,000-yard producer are over. Hilton will likely mimic the last few years of Emmanuel Sanders' career - a role player whose big games are few and far between.

With so much young NFL talent at receiver, you're better off taking a chance on an unproven twentysomething with upside rather than clogging up a roster spot on an inconsistent and declining asset like Hilton.

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