Majority of Hamilton’s active COVID cases among the young
More than three-quarters of Hamilton's active COVID cases are among those under the age of 60.
Infections have dropped off significantly in seniors, who have high rates of vaccination in Hamilton.
At the same time, variants are spreading fast among the younger and healthier, driving a provincewide stay-at-home order aimed at curbing the threat of the virus to schools and the health system.
The trends we are seeing are very troubling," Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario's associate chief medical officer of health, said Thursday. The numbers were getting dangerously high."
The aim is to limit mobility to stop the spread of the virus while the province gets needles into as many arms as it can.
Premier Doug Ford said 40 per cent of Ontario's adults will be vaccinated with at least one dose by the end of the four-week stay-at-home order. It's not the 70 per cent to 80 per cent coverage estimated to be required for herd immunity but it's expected to significantly reduce infections.
We need to get the vaccines where they will have the greatest impact as quickly as possible," Ford said Wednesday. This will be critical to getting this third wave under control."
Looking at Hamilton's active cases, it's easy to see the difference vaccination can make.
The city reported 52 new COVID infections Thursday to bring the number of active cases to 849.
Only 37 of the 849 active cases are among those age 80 or older. About 80 per cent of this age group has been vaccinated.
A further 53 cases are residents in their 70s. About 70 per cent of those age 75 to 79 are vaccinated, while it's 60 per cent of 70- to 75-year-olds.
A game changer has been vaccination in seniors' homes. It's estimated 100 per cent of long-term-care home residents in Hamilton have had at least one dose and 93 per cent of seniors living in retirement homes.
It's very heartening to see what our experience has been with long-term care and retirement homes," said Yaffe. We have seen a dramatic reduction in cases, in hospitalizations and in deaths."
Seniors' homes no longer dominate the city's 44 active outbreaks. There were nine outbreaks Thursday and five of them had one case. All of the seniors' home outbreaks put together account for 29 infections and 17 of those are staff.
It compares to the first and second waves when there were massive outbreaks in seniors' homes involving dozens of cases each. The worst at Grace Villa in the second wave had 234 infections and 144 of those were residents.
One shot has been shown in real world experience to result to approximately 60 to 80 per cent effectiveness in preventing infection," said Yaffe. The vaccine has just over 85 per cent effectiveness in preventing hospitalizations and deaths."
The ability of vaccines to drive down infections among seniors is behind Scarsin Forecasting predicting fewer overall hospitalizations in Hamilton in the third wave compared to the second.
However, the modelling doesn't show the rapid rise in severe illness causing intensive-care units to fill up, which is threatening to swamp Ontario's hospitals.
This needs to be immediately addressed before the system is completely overwhelmed and we lose our ability to care for all of the patients," said Yaffe.
The picture in Hamilton is also much less optimistic when the projections are broken down by age, showing COVID hospitalizations of people between the ages of 30 to 69 will surpass the second wave.
We're getting younger people in hospital," said Yaffe. What we were seeing was the slope of the increase of cases and hospitalizations was increasing rapidly."
Young adults in their 20s have the highest number of active cases in Hamilton followed by those age 10 to 19. About one-third of the city's cases are 10- to 29-year-olds.
Next is residents in their 50s and 40s, who together make up just over one-quarter.
While variants are making younger people sicker than the original virus, seniors are still dying despite vaccination efforts.
The city reported two more deaths in seniors age 70 to 79. Of the city's 332 pandemic deaths, nearly 88 per cent are age 70 and older.
In Ontario, variants now make up the vast majority" of cases, said Yaffe. In Hamilton, its slightly less at nearly half of new cases from March 27 to April 2.
Hamilton reported 1,178 presumed variant cases Thursday and 17 confirmed infections of B.1.1.7, which originated in the United Kingdom. Nearly 60 per cent of Hamilton's active outbreaks have screened positive for the variants - 26 out of 44.
It's significant because the variants spread faster and cause more severe illness, which is why the province put the stay-at-home order in place.
We're hoping these measures ... won't last more than a month," said Yaffe. It's unfortunate that this has happened, but we have to do what we have to do to control this virus before it gets us."
Hamilton is averaging 108 new COVID cases a day. The weekly rate per 100,000 was nearly 121 from March 29 to April 4.
The city's reproduction number has fallen significantly to 0.94 as of Thursday compared to 1.21 the week before. However, the number needs to be below 0.7 with the variants to slow spread.
The number of tests coming back positive for COVID in Hamilton is 4.9 per cent - the goal is to stay below three per cent.
A deadly outbreak at Hamilton General Hospital's unit 8 west was declared over Wednesday after 28 were infected and four died since March 13.
Other outbreaks declared over include Blackadar Continuing Care, Lisgar Elementary School and Orchard Terrace Retirement Home.
New outbreaks were declared Wednesday at supportive housing Kelly's Residence on Stinson Street after one staff tested positive, as well as at Bellstone Christian School in Mount Hope where nine students and one staff are infected.
Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com