How good are we at predicting the pandemic? | David Spiegelhalter & Anthony Masters

Models have been useful, especially as humans are far too optimistic and confident

Epidemiological models have been a source of continual controversy from the start of the pandemic, often blamed for fearmongering and inaccuracy. How well have they done?

Perhaps the most famous piece of modelling came from Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College London in March 2020, credited with provoking the full national lockdown. Unfortunately, there are repeated claims they estimated 510,000 deaths in Great Britain over two years, but that was a projection under the implausible scenario that nothing was done about the virus. Their model was, if anything, rather optimistic. Even short of a full lockdown, they projected maximum deaths in Great Britain of fewer than 50,000 and the actual total has been far higher.