NFL MVP odds, long shots: Buy low on Taysom Hill, Jordan Love in 2021
It's been nearly four months since the opening odds for this year's NFL MVP were released, and while not much has changed since then, there are still a handful of long shots that early bettors haven't squeezed out.
Remember that Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson - two of the last three MVP winners - were priced at 100-1 long shots early in the offseason before their breakout campaigns. So with that in mind, here are the updated MVP odds for 2021 and three of our favorite long-shot plays ahead of the season:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +450 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +800 |
| Josh Allen | +1100 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1500 |
| Tom Brady | +1500 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott | +1800 |
| Russell Wilson | +1800 |
| Justin Herbert | +2000 |
| Kyler Murray | +2000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +3000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +3300 |
| Carson Wentz | +4000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +4000 |
| Matt Ryan | +4200 |
| Derrick Henry | +5000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +5500 |
| Jalen Hurts | +5500 |
| Joe Burrow | +5500 |
| Dalvin Cook | +6000 |
| Jameis Winston | +6000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +6000 |
| Cam Newton | +6500 |
| Derek Carr | +7500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +9000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +9000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +10000 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +10000 |
| Daniel Jones | +10000 |
| Justin Fields | +10000 |
| Nick Chubb | +10000 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | +10000 |
| Sam Darnold | +10000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +10000 |
| Taysom Hill | +11000 |
| Field (all others not listed) | +12500 |
| George Kittle | +12500 |
| Jared Goff | +12500 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +12500 |
| Jordan Love | +12500 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | +12500 |
| Trey Lance | +12500 |
| Aaron Jones | +15000 |
| Allen Robinson | +15000 |
| Andy Dalton | +15000 |
| Calvin Ridley | +15000 |
| Cam Akers | +15000 |
| Davante Adams | +15000 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | +15000 |
| Drew Lock | +15000 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +15000 |
| Julio Jones | +15000 |
| Michael Thomas | +15000 |
| Stefon Diggs | +15000 |
| Travis Kelce | +15000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +15000 |
| DK Metcalf | +17500 |
| Joe Mixon | +20000 |
| Justin Jefferson | +20000 |
| Mac Jones | +20000 |
| Mike Evans | +20000 |
| Najee Harris | +20000 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +20000 |
| Zach Wilson | +20000 |
| Austin Ekeler | +25000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +25000 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +25000 |
| Josh Jacobs | +25000 |
| Keenan Allen | +25000 |
| Leonard Fournette | +25000 |
Could this be the year the stars finally align for Carr? The Raiders quarterback finished third in MVP voting in 2016 despite missing the final game with an injury, and he drew some MVP chatter a year ago before a lackluster final few weeks.
The 2014 second-round draft pick still finished 11th in the NFL in passing yards (4,103), passing touchdowns (27), interception rate (1.7%), and QBR (71.0) last season, and his five game-winning drives ranked second - his most since notching seven in 2016. Carr has thrown for 4,000 yards in three straight campaigns and has reached MVP-level heights before, making him an easy play at these odds.
Taysom Hill, QB, Saints (+11000)There are two major red flags to Hill's MVP case: We don't know if he'll be the Saints' starting quarterback in 2021, and we don't know if he'll even be a good quarterback if he wins the job. But if he does, there's reason to think he could flash MVP upside.
Hill's completion percentage (72.7%) led all players with at least 100 attempts in 2020, and he ranked among the top 11 passers in interception rate (1.7%) and yards per attempt (7.7). The 30-year-old also ranked fifth among QBs in rushing yards (457) despite playing just four full games behind center, and he ranked among the top 15 of all players (minimum 50 carries) in rushing touchdowns (8) and yards per attempt (5.3).
If Hill does earn the starting role, he'll be walking into a situation that helped propel Drew Brees to perennial MVP consideration - and adding a highlight-reel element Brees simply never had. Hill could just easily bottom out in his first year as a starter. At these odds, though, it's well worth the gamble.
Jordan Love, QB, Packers (+12500)Much like Hill, we don't know if Love will start in 2021, and he has even less proof that he can handle the rigors of the NFL. Unlike Hill, the Packers' signal-caller has first-round pedigree and elite arm talent, and it's hard to imagine a better player to slap down $10 on as a buy-low lottery ticket.
We've never seen Love take a snap, which is both the reason for this long price and the intrigue of betting it. The Utah State product could be substantially better than the market credits him for, and his pure talent surpasses almost everyone with similar odds. Love's also in an ideal spot to make a "narrative" case for the award if he can lead Green Bay to 10-plus wins in place of reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Love spending a year behind Rodgers draws natural comparisons to Mahomes sitting for a year behind 2017 MVP candidate Alex Smith before his own run in 2018. No, Love isn't Mahomes, but it's hard not to like his chances at a Mahomes-like run at these odds.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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