Article 5JDVS The players and battles to watch in Round 2's American series

The players and battles to watch in Round 2's American series

by
Nick Faris
from on (#5JDVS)

The NHL's North Division commands wall-to-wall coverage in Canada, but stellar hockey is being played south of the border in front of spirited home crowds, a striking change from the regular season.

On cue for Round 2, we preview the postseason's next slate of American series. Here's a rundown of what's at stake, and key storylines and battles to monitor, in the East, Central, and West Division finals.

----------East Division: Boston vs. N.Y. Islanders

Six points in the standings separated this division's first and fourth playoff seeds, and now a couple of the NHL's stingiest defensive clubs get to square off for the East title.

The Bruins are undeniably more dynamic; that'll be true until older stars Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Krejci fall off. And the team probably improved more than anyone at the trade deadline, adding impact contributors Taylor Hall and Mike Reilly at the cost of a bottom-six forward, Anders Bjork, and two picks.

cropped_GettyImages-1233011449.jpg?ts=16Boston's Taylor Hall. Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Kyle Palmieri was a nice acquisition for New York, but the Islanders are dangerous because they trust and execute Barry Trotz's system. They're workmanlike, bunker down in the defensive zone to inhibit shot quality, capitalize on counterattacks, and buck the idea that possession control is needed to thrive.

Take New York's six-game defeat over Pittsburgh. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Penguins owned 58.92% of shot attempts at five-on-five but only 52.25% of high-danger chances, and they were outscored 18-12. One big reason was Ilya Sorokin, the 25-year-old rookie who authored a .943 save percentage (to Tristan Jarry's .888). Now, he'll encounter a formidable netminding foe in Tuukka Rask.

What's at stake: Beyond the question of how many runs Boston's thirtysomething core has left, how's this for a subplot: pending free agent Hall's quest for personal playoff success. The 11-year vet is drumming up something resembling momentum, if we ignore his woeful stint in Buffalo. He won his first career postseason series with Arizona last season (albeit in the bubbled play-in round) and scored twice to help the Bruins dispatch Washington in five games.

The Islanders want to build on the headway they've made under Trotz's command. They don't have a superstar on Alex Ovechkin's level, but the former Capitals coach's emphasis on team defense has powered the Isles to series victories three years running, including their surge to the 2020 Eastern Conference Final. They lost to Tampa Bay in six games that postseason, but a rematch in Round 3 or a trip to the Stanley Cup Final remains possible.

cropped_GettyImages-1233051357.jpg?ts=16New York's Josh Bailey. Mike Stobe / NHL / Getty Images

Boston's player to watch: Charlie McAvoy. If the Bruins are through to Round 3 by the time Norris Trophy finalists are announced on June 9, expect that their No. 1 defenseman dictated play. In the heavy minutes that McAvoy shouldered this year without Torey Krug or Zdeno Chara around, Boston outscored teams 50-32 at five-on-five, an elite figure. He assisted on all five of Boston's Round 1 power-play goals.

New York's player to watch: Josh Bailey. Brock Nelson's right-winger scored in double overtime against the Penguins and leads the Islanders in playoff assists and points (23 and 32 in 36 games) since Trotz's arrival. Mathew Barzal dazzles, but Bailey, Nelson, and Anthony Beauvillier are New York's safest bet to drive offense as a collective.

----------Central Division: Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

By the standings, the odds in this matchup tilt toward the Hurricanes, the divisional top seed whose defensive game is on par with Boston's and New York's. Spiritually, the reigning Stanley Cup champions have to be favored until a challenger unseats them.

Why not the Hurricanes? Nashville goalie Juuse Saros just pushed them to six overtime periods, but the 'Canes controlled 56.69% of five-on-five expected goals in the series, signaling good process. Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck, and Jordan Staal each center a wicked Carolina forward line. One compelling battle to track this round: Norris Trophy aspirant Dougie Hamilton seeking to outplay Victor Hedman, 2020's Conn Smythe Trophy winner.

cropped_GettyImages-1233124959.jpg?ts=16Carolina's Sebastian Aho (right). Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Carolina is deep, yet the Lightning remain stacked, and Nikita Kucherov dispelled against Florida the concern that he'd be slow to boot up following his return from hip surgery. Blame the Panthers' goalie carousel for conceding 22 goals in six games, but acknowledge Tampa's firepower, too. Eight forwards scored multiple first-round goals, including Steven Stamkos, the captain who saw only 2:47 of ice time during the Cup run.

What's at stake: The Bruins gave Carolina fits the past two postseasons, winning eight of nine games to stunt the Hurricanes' transition from up-and-comers to legit contenders. Ousting the Lightning would signify that this team has made the leap. Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Martin Necas are no longer playoff newcomers. Do any of them have a career performance in store?

Tampa Bay is gunning to become the Stanley Cup's second repeat victor this century, taking after Pittsburgh in 2016 and 2017. Consider it a golden opportunity before the bill's due. Twelve Lightning players earn more than $4.4 million annually; the club contorted below the salary cap by stashing Kucherov ($9.5 million) on long-term injured reserve for the entire season. Tougher decisions loom this summer.

cropped_GettyImages-1233127835.jpg?ts=16Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov (right). Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Carolina's player to watch: Alex Nedeljkovic. No one's taking the Calder Trophy from Kirill Kaprizov's mitts, but 25-year-old Nedeljkovic was a revelation in net in his first full NHL campaign. His save percentage in 23 appearances was .932, the best in the league among regular starters. Per Evolving Hockey, only Marc-Andre Fleury and Connor Hellebuyck topped his mark of 12.92 goals saved above expectation.

If he dominates the Lightning as he did in three starts during the season - Nedeljkovic stopped 75 of 78 shots and posted a shutout - then hockey will crown a new champ this year.

Tampa Bay's player to watch: Alex Killorn. The Lightning have nailed their share of first-round draft picks since the 2005 lockout - Stamkos, Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy - and unearthed gem after overlooked gem later in the process. Kucherov and Brayden Point are studs, while Ondrej Palat and Anthony Cirelli were inspired finds.

Teams like the Panthers lose hope when guys like Killorn, the 77th pick in 2007, snare four goals and four assists in a series - two fewer points than he contributed to Tampa Bay's entire 2020 Cup charge. Kucherov, Stamkos, and Point will inevitably get their points. Let Killorn score at will, and Carolina's in trouble.

----------West Division: Colorado vs. Vegascropped_GettyImages-1233074787.jpg?ts=16Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon. Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Bitter: This matchup is worthy of the Cup Final, let alone the second round. Sweet: After Joel Kiviranta's Game 7 hat trick booked Dallas - not Colorado - a playoff date with Vegas last summer, at least these powerhouses finally are meeting.

Little separated Colorado and Vegas in the regular season, though the Avalanche's edge in regulation wins broke a tie for the Presidents' Trophy. Colorado was first in the NHL in goals for, third in goals against, and - accounting for goal differential and schedule strength - a close second in Hockey Reference's Simple Rating System. Vegas was third, first, and first in those categories, respectively.

One distinction: Colorado's 60.08 expected goals percentage was by far the league's top mark, according to Natural Stat Trick's data. Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog menace defenses together, but what separates Colorado from, say, Connor McDavid's Oilers is influential forward depth, plus the terrific blue-line corps that Cale Makar headlines and Devon Toews has fortified.

cropped_GettyImages-1319894203.jpg?ts=16Vegas' Mark Stone. Jeff Bottari / NHL / Getty Images

Philipp Grubauer was a top-10 goalie this season by save percentage and goals saved above average; he let in a mere seven goals on 110 shots (.936) as Colorado swept the Blues in Round 1. Minnesota, the Golden Knights' first opponent, really distressed Vegas, but Fleury's .931 save percentage over seven games was almost as pristine.

Although Max Pacioretty sat out the postseason's first six games, Mark Stone and top-line fill-in Alex Tuch combined to burn the Wild for seven goals. Pacioretty scoring and playing 16:28 in Game 7 was a welcome sight, considering how sorely Vegas missed his point-per-game touch in two shutout defeats.

What's at stake: Recent history dictates that Colorado has more riding on this matchup. The Avalanche have the core, the ascendant young talent, and the team-friendly superstar contract - MacKinnon is signed at $6.3 million through 2023 - to achieve staying power and compete for Cups annually. But they've lost consecutive second-round Game 7s and haven't reached Round 3 since 2002.

It only took three years for the playoffs to thrill, devastate, and vex the NHL's 31st franchise. The Golden Knights made the 2018 final as expansion darlings, crashed epically in a first-round Game 7 in 2019, and got stoned by Anton Khudobin in last year's Western Conference Final. This is their last shot to hoist the Cup before the Seattle Kraken debut.

cropped_GettyImages-1319081313.jpg?ts=16Colorado's Cale Makar (left) and Mikko Rantanen. Michael Martin / NHL / Getty Images

Colorado's players to watch: Andre Burakovsky and Makar. The MacKinnon line is Colorado's greatest edge in this and any matchup. If the club's next-best scorers can pressure Fleury and swing possession in the Avalanche's favor, that would offset Vegas' signature strengths: goaltending and offensive variety.

Burakovsky was serviceable for half a decade in Washington, but the second-line winger rounded into a marksman once he was dealt to the Avs in 2019. He would have challenged for 30 goals had 2020-21 been a full season. At any rate, he tallied a career-high 0.83 points per game (44 in 53).

Makar has aced each of his NHL tests, starting with his 2019 playoff baptism out of college. The Golden Knights held him to two points in six games this season, and they're relentless when they hit top gear. Watching Makar try to pick them apart in the postseason should be tremendous fun.

Vegas' players to watch: Stone and Alex Pietrangelo. No need to strain to identify these difference-makers. Stone, the NHL takeaways king, tied for sixth in the league in five-on-five scoring in the regular season. His 37 points in that phase of the game bested Rantanen's 35 and MacKinnon's 34.

If Stone is the most potent scorer in the series, pencil Vegas in as the West Division champ and Stanley Cup favorite. The subtext here: That would require slowing MacKinnon, the forward Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez faced the most this year.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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