Patriots 2021 win total preview: Bet Belichick to bounce back
Once the NFL's cream of the crop, the Patriots took a turn for the worse last season. Can head coach Bill Belichick get his team back on track this fall following its worst finish since the turn of the century?
Here's New England's win total for the upcoming campaign along with which way we're leaning.
Patriots' 2021 win totalOver: 9 (-125)
Under: 9 (+105)
Nothing went right for the Patriots in 2020, and the slide began six months before they even took the field, when six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady signed with the Bucs.
New England subsequently drew the toughest schedule in the entire league, missed, by far, the most games due to COVID-19, and suffered its first losing season in 20 years. Oh, and to rub salt in the wound, Brady led Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl win.
Most games missed due to COVID-19
| Team | Games Missed |
|---|---|
| Patriots | 69 |
| Giants | 27 |
| Broncos | 25 |
| Cardinals | 22 |
| Packers | 21 |
Their 7-9 mark in 2020 broke a 17-year streak of double-digit wins for the Patriots, whose highlights were few and far between.
Quarterback Cam Newton looked like a shell of himself, especially as a passer. The offense finished No. 23 in total DVOA, No. 27 in yards per game, and No. 30 in passing yards per contest.
The defense, meanwhile, regressed in explosive plays allowed - No. 5 in the NFL in 2019 to No. 24 in '20 - and was middle-of-the-road elsewhere. New England's special teams unit was actually the best in the NFL statistically, finishing first in DVOA.
BreakdownThe roster needed a makeover, so the Patriots opened up their wallets.
They doled out contracts to a pair of tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, and another couple to wide receivers Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor to fortify a unit that ranked No. 19 in explosive play rate in 2020. Whether it's Newton or rookie Mac Jones under center, the supporting cast is immediately more appealing than last year's, which didn't feature a single tight end or wide receiver with more than two touchdown catches.
Kyle Van Noy is back for the defense, which is good news for a front seven that also added Matt Judon, a back-to-back Pro Bowl selection. The pass rush could benefit from a breakout from former second-rounder Josh Uche, who injected life into the unit after debuting in Week 8.
The schedule lightens up considerably - their opponents' combined win-loss percentage from last year is just .489 following a 2020 slate that led the NFL (.537).
Best bet - Over 9 (-125)The offense was unwatchable in 2020. The defense lost multiple key players to opt-outs during the previous offseason, and the roster overall was hit hardest by the pandemic. Their schedule wasn't easy. Yet, somehow they flirted with a .500 record and were positive in both Pythagorean Wins (7.4) and Estimated Wins (7.3).
This will be a vintage Belichick turnaround. The 2021 roster is light-years better than last year's when accounting for both free-agent additions and health, and the path is much easier.
The Bills are AFC East favorites and the Dolphins are Jets are both on the upswing, but betting markets aren't taking New England seriously enough.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.
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