When will Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones become starters?
As the 2021 NFL season approaches, three franchises face an obvious, unavoidable question that promises to linger until their head coaches resolve it: How long will it take them to start their first-round rookie quarterback?
The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets already have their answer. Barring injury or something unforeseen, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are both expected to begin their Sept. 12 openers under center, even if Jacksonville's being a bit cagey about outright acknowledging Lawrence's status. The Jags and Jets won a combined three games last season, and they used the draft's first two picks on Lawrence and Wilson to help level set their respective rebuilds. That's it. That's the summary for those two teams.
After that? It gets complicated. The San Francisco 49ers traded up to land Trey Lance third overall, and the Chicago Bears did the same to score Justin Fields at No. 11. The New England Patriots, still scuffling along the unknown path of their post-Tom Brady reality, stayed put. But the Pats nabbed Mac Jones at No. 15 anyway.
The Niners, Bears, and Patriots all possess experienced veteran quarterbacks, and all three have better rosters than the Jags and Jets. To varying degrees, each team has enough structure in place to allow its rookie to get a little more used to the water before forcing him to swim.
But the time to leap into the deep end of the pool will come soon enough. Head coaches Kyle Shanahan, Matt Nagy, and Bill Belichick will all calibrate their decision to turn to the New Guy based on any number of internal factors. And even though each team's respective fan base will no doubt calmly and rationally call for change the instant Jimmy Garoppolo, Andy Dalton, or Cam Newton flings an incomplete pass, the question of when that switch might happen has no right or wrong answer.
Between 1999 and 2020, 28 teams collectively drafted 65 quarterbacks in the first round, according to Stathead. Only the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, and the Patriots didn't join the list. (Congratulations to the Cleveland Browns, I guess, for selecting a league-high five first-round passers during that span.) Although teams aren't great at choosing quarterbacks, those picks were made in the hope of securing each club's future at the sport's most important position.
So, according to Pro Football Reference, what can be gleaned from when these passers were handed the keys?
- Just 19 of those 65 quarterbacks (29%) started Week 1 of their rookie seasons
- A total of 40 first-round passers (62%) started by their team's sixth game
- By Game 10, 49 of the 65 (75%) had made at least one start
- 55 of the 65 (85%) started at some point during their rookie seasons
- The average game number for a first-round quarterback's initial start was 7.8, and the average number of starts those rookies made was 8.9
- Four passers - Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, J.P. Losman, and Jake Locker - didn't start until Week 1 of their second seasons, though Losman had broken his leg during training camp as a rookie
- Philip Rivers didn't debut as a starter until Week 1 of his third campaign, while it took until Game 5 of Chad Pennington's third season to get his chance. Aaron Rodgers didn't get the nod until Game 1 of his fourth season after waiting out Brett Favre
There are a few caveats; rookies Cade McNown (remember him?), Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, and Justin Herbert were thrust into starting roles ahead of schedule due to injuries. A handful of other quarterbacks also had their rookie seasons cut short by injuries.
Though each team made its decision on its own terms, a demarcation of sorts can be drawn in 2011. That was the year the league's collective bargaining agreement first included a slotted pay scale for all draft picks, a provision that stripped draftees of nearly all bargaining power while also providing clubs with four-to-five years of cost certainty. This seems to have ramped up the urgency for teams to roll with their rookies.
Using Pro Football Reference, let's expand and refine some data shared a few months back by John Paulsen at 4For4 Football. From 1999 to 2010, 33 quarterbacks were selected in the first round. The following table includes data on expected points added per play (EPA/play), per Ben Baldwin's website, to show how each player performed across his career. It took, on average, until Game 11 for each passer to debut as a starter. Only seven of the 33 debuted in Week 1. The average number of rookie starts for the entire group was only seven.
(Scroll to the right to view the tables below in full.)
Quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 1999-2010| Player | Year | Pick No. | Drafting team | Game of first start | No. of rookie starts | Career EPA/play | Team's other starter(s) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 2002 | 1 | HOU | 1 | 16 | -0.048 | - | |
| Kyle Boller | 2003 | 19 | BAL | 1 | 9 | -0.085 | - | Injured 5 games |
| Matt Ryan | 2008 | 3 | ATL | 1 | 16 | 0.177 | - | |
| Joe Flacco | 2008 | 18 | BAL | 1 | 16 | 0.065 | - | |
| Matt Stafford | 2009 | 1 | DET | 1 | 10 | 0.110 | - | Injured 6 games |
| Mark Sanchez | 2009 | 5 | NYJ | 1 | 15 | -0.024 | - | |
| Sam Bradford | 2010 | 1 | RAM | 1 | 16 | -0.005 | - | |
| Tim Couch | 1999 | 1 | CLE | 2 | 14 | -0.042 | Ty Detmer | |
| Joey Harrington | 2002 | 3 | DET | 3 | 12 | -0.080 | Mike McMahon | Injured 2 games |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | 11 | PIT | 3 | 13 | 0.180 | Tommy Maddox | Maddox injured; rested in finale |
| Byron Leftwich | 2003 | 7 | JAX | 4 | 13 | 0.065 | Mark Brunell | Brunell injured |
| Vince Young | 2006 | 3 | TEN | 4 | 13 | 0.047 | Kerry Collins | |
| Akili Smith | 1999 | 3 | CIN | 5 | 4 | -0.224 | Jeff Blake | Injured 8 games |
| Patrick Ramsey | 2002 | 32 | WSH | 5 | 5 | -0.014 | Shane Matthews | Benched |
| Alex Smith | 2005 | 1 | SF | 5 | 7 | 0.046 | Tim Rattay | Injured 5 games |
| Matt Leinart | 2006 | 10 | ARZ | 5 | 11 | -0.022 | Kurt Warner | |
| Cade McNown | 1999 | 12 | CHI | 6 | 6 | -0.104 | Shane Matthews | Matthews injured |
| Michael Vick | 2001 | 1 | ATL | 8 | 2 | 0.070 | Chris Chandler | |
| Josh Freeman | 2009 | 17 | TB | 8 | 9 | 0.024 | Byron Leftwich; Josh Johnson | |
| Donovan McNabb | 1999 | 2 | PHL | 10 | 6 | 0.084 | Doug Pederson | |
| Eli Manning | 2004 | 1 | SD --> NYG | 10 | 7 | 0.076 | Kurt Warner | |
| Jay Cutler | 2006 | 11 | DEN | 12 | 5 | 0.065 | Jake Plummer | |
| Rex Grossman | 2003 | 22 | CHI | 14 | 3 | -0.030 | Kordell Stewart; Chris Chandler | |
| Tim Tebow | 2010 | 25 | DEN | 14 | 3 | 0.001 | Kyle Orton | |
| JaMarcus Russell | 2007 | 1 | OAK | 16 | 1 | -0.197 | Josh McCown; Daunte Culpepper | |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1999 | 11 | MIN | 17 | 0 | 0.067 | Randall Cunningham; Jeff George | |
| Carson Palmer | 2003 | 1 | CIN | 17 | 0 | 0.126 | Jon Kitna | |
| J.P. Losman | 2004 | 22 | BUF | 17 | 0 | -0.082 | Drew Bledsoe | Injured in camp |
| Brady Quinn | 2007 | 22 | CLE | 25 | 0 | -0.151 | Derek Anderson | |
| Jason Campbell | 2005 | 25 | WSH | 26 | 0 | 0.046 | Patrick Ramsey; Mark Brunell | |
| Philip Rivers | 2004 | 4 | NYG --> SD | 33 | 0 | 0.192 | Drew Brees | |
| Chad Pennington | 2000 | 18 | NYJ | 37 | 0 | 0.127 | Vinny Testaverde | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2005 | 24 | GB | 49 | 0 | 0.232 | Brett Favre | |
| Average | 11.0 | 7.0 | 0.021 |
From 2011 to 2020, though, it took an average of just 4.5 games for the 32 quarterbacks drafted in the first round to make their first start, with the number of rookie starts jumping to an average of 10.9. Twelve of the 32 passers started as rookies in Week 1:
Quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 2011-2020| Player | Year | Pick No. | Drafting team | Game of first start | No. of rookie starts | Career EPA/play | Team's other starter(s) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 2011 | 1 | CLT | 1 | 16 | 0.106 | - | |
| Andrew Luck | 2012 | 1 | IND | 1 | 16 | 0.139 | - | |
| Robert Griffin III | 2012 | 2 | WSH | 1 | 15 | 0.060 | - | |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | 8 | MIA | 1 | 16 | 0.085 | - | |
| Brandon Weeden | 2012 | 22 | CLE | 1 | 15 | -0.005 | - | |
| EJ Manuel | 2013 | 16 | BUF | 1 | 10 | -0.041 | - | Injured 6 games |
| Jameis Winston | 2015 | 1 | TB | 1 | 16 | 0.138 | - | |
| Marcus Mariota | 2015 | 2 | TEN | 1 | 12 | 0.109 | - | Injured 4 games |
| Carson Wentz | 2016 | 2 | PHL | 1 | 16 | 0.089 | - | |
| Sam Darnold | 2018 | 3 | NYJ | 1 | 13 | -0.030 | - | Injured 3 games |
| Kyler Murray | 2019 | 1 | ARZ | 1 | 16 | 0.109 | - | |
| Joe Burrow | 2020 | 1 | CIN | 1 | 10 | 0.136 | - | Injured 6 games |
| Deshaun Watson | 2017 | 12 | HOU | 2 | 6 | 0.205 | Tom Savage | Injured 10 games |
| Josh Allen | 2018 | 7 | BUF | 2 | 11 | 0.139 | Nathan Peterman | Injured 4 games |
| Justin Herbert | 2020 | 6 | LAC | 2 | 15 | 0.177 | Tyrod Taylor | Taylor injured |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | 10 | JAX | 3 | 14 | -0.125 | Luke McCown | |
| Daniel Jones | 2019 | 6 | NYG | 3 | 12 | 0.011 | Eli Manning | Injured 2 games |
| Blake Bortles | 2014 | 3 | JAX | 4 | 13 | 0.025 | Chad Henne | |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2014 | 32 | MIN | 4 | 12 | 0.073 | Matt Cassel | Injured 1 game |
| Baker Mayfield | 2018 | 1 | CLE | 4 | 13 | 0.120 | Tyrod Taylor | |
| Josh Rosen | 2018 | 10 | ARZ | 4 | 13 | -0.255 | Sam Bradford | |
| Paxton Lynch | 2016 | 26 | DEN | 5 | 2 | -0.110 | Trevor Siemian | |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2017 | 2 | CHI | 5 | 12 | 0.060 | Mike Glennon | |
| Christian Ponder | 2011 | 12 | MIN | 7 | 10 | -0.008 | Donovan McNabb | |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2020 | 5 | MIA | 7 | 9 | 0.034 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Injured 1 game |
| Dwayne Haskins | 2019 | 15 | WSH | 9 | 7 | -0.117 | Case Keenum; Colt McCoy | Injured 1 game |
| Jared Goff | 2016 | 1 | RAM | 10 | 7 | 0.116 | Case Keenum | |
| Lamar Jackson | 2018 | 32 | BAL | 10 | 7 | 0.222 | Joe Flacco | |
| Johnny Manziel | 2014 | 22 | CLE | 14 | 2 | -0.060 | Brian Hoyer | |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2017 | 10 | KC | 16 | 1 | 0.331 | Alex Smith | |
| Jake Locker | 2011 | 8 | TEN | 17 | 0 | 0.023 | Matt Hasselbeck | |
| Jordan Love | 2020 | 25 | GB | - | 0 | - | Aaron Rodgers | |
| Average | 4.5 | 10.9 | 0.057 |
Another noticeable trend is that 12 of the 32 first-round rookie quarterbacks taken between 1999 and 2010 didn't start until after Game 10:
First-round QBs who started after Game 10, 1999-2010| Player | Year | Pick | Drafting team | Game of first start | Rookie starts | Career EPA/play | Team's other starter(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 2006 | 11 | DEN | 12 | 5 | 0.065 | Jake Plummer |
| Rex Grossman | 2003 | 22 | CHI | 14 | 3 | -0.030 | Kordell Stewart; Chris Chandler |
| Tim Tebow | 2010 | 25 | DEN | 14 | 3 | 0.001 | Kyle Orton |
| JaMarcus Russell | 2007 | 1 | OAK | 16 | 1 | -0.197 | Josh McCown; Daunte Culpepper |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1999 | 11 | MIN | 17 | 0 | 0.067 | Randall Cunningham; Jeff George |
| Carson Palmer | 2003 | 1 | CIN | 17 | 0 | 0.126 | Jon Kitna |
| J.P. Losman | 2004 | 22 | BUF | 17 | 0 | -0.082 | Drew Bledsoe |
| Brady Quinn | 2007 | 22 | CLE | 25 | 0 | -0.151 | Derek Anderson |
| Jason Campbell | 2005 | 25 | WSH | 26 | 0 | 0.046 | Patrick Ramsey; Mark Brunell |
| Philip Rivers | 2004 | 4 | NYG --> SD | 33 | 0 | 0.192 | Drew Brees |
| Chad Pennington | 2000 | 18 | NYJ | 37 | 0 | 0.127 | Vinny Testaverde |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2005 | 24 | GB | 49 | 0 | 0.232 | Brett Favre |
From 2011 to 2020, there were only four quarterbacks to debut as starters after Game 10:
First-round QBs who started after Game 10, 2011-2020| Player | Year | Pick | Drafting team | Game of first start | Rookie starts | Career EPA/play | Team's other starter(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 2014 | 22 | CLE | 14 | 2 | -0.060 | Brian Hoyer |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2017 | 10 | KC | 16 | 1 | 0.331 | Alex Smith |
| Jake Locker | 2011 | 8 | TEN | 17 | 0 | 0.023 | Matt Hasselbeck |
| Jordan Love | 2020 | 25 | GB | - | 0 | - | Aaron Rodgers |
The less said about Johnny Manziel and Locker, the better. But you'll notice that Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love are the other two players on that list. Both were drafted specifically to be groomed behind well-established veteran incumbents. We know how that's turned out for Mahomes, while Love's opportunity might ultimately depend on Aaron Rodgers' mood next spring.
Multiple non-first-round quarterbacks had to wait a while to get their turns. Tony Romo, undrafted in 2003, didn't get a chance to start until the seventh game of his fourth season. Drew Brees spent the entirety of his rookie year sitting behind Doug Flutie after being drafted in the second round by the San Diego Chargers. And Tom Brady, the greatest of all time, famously backed up Drew Bledsoe for a full season and two games, or right when Mo Lewis fell on and injured Bledsoe.
There's no telling when that time will come for Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones, but recent history indicates it'll likely happen sometime this season. In the meantime, their teams will surely keep getting asked that obvious, unavoidable question.
Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.
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