NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds: Dak favored in injury-riddled field
While most of the focus each season in the NFL futures market is on the Super Bowl and MVP, one of the most entertaining markets is for the Comeback Player of the Year - an award neither clear in what it's rewarding nor consistent in its list of winners.
Washington quarterback Alex Smith won the award in 2020, becoming the 14th signal-caller to win in the award's 24-year history but just the second in the last six years. Five of those six winners were returning from injury, though some - like 2019 winner Ryan Tannehill - have won "coming back" from rotten performances the prior year. Others have claimed the award after returning from off-field drama.
What will be the reason for this year's victory? Here are the odds to win Comeback Player of the Year in 2021 with a few names to watch for:
2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | +170 |
| Saquon Barkley | +550 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +600 |
| Joe Burrow | +600 |
| Nick Bosa | +800 |
| Carson Wentz | +900 |
| Derwin James | +1500 |
| Jameis Winston | +1500 |
| Sam Darnold | +1500 |
| Von Miller | +1500 |
| Julio Jones | +1800 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +2000 |
| Joe Mixon | +2200 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | +2500 |
| Tim Tebow | +3000 |
| Danielle Hunter | +4000 |
| Dont'a Hightower | +5000 |
| Damien Williams | +9000 |
| C.J. Mosley | +10000 |
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys (+170)
The five players with the shortest odds in this market are all returning from injury, but nobody offers more pedigree or upside in his return than Prescott. The Cowboys quarterback was on pace to shatter numerous NFL passing yards records before breaking his ankle five games into the 2020 season.
He's also fighting through a shoulder injury suffered this offseason, though he's expected to start the campaign and is poised for massive production leading Dallas' loaded offense. Betting the favorite in this market is seldom a wise play. But if Prescott shows even 80-90% of what he showed in 2020, the 28-year-old is a shoo-in for this award.
Derwin James, S, Chargers (+1500)
James is one of the few players on this list who didn't play a snap in 2020; the 25-year-old missed the whole year after tearing his meniscus in the preseason. He's also one of the most talented, as he showed in a stellar rookie season in 2018 when he recorded 105 tackles, 3.5 sacks, three interceptions, and 13 pass breakups.
The former first-round pick has played just five games across two seasons since then. A healthy year from the Chargers' star safety would put him near the top of this field in production - and narrative.
Danielle Hunter, DE, Vikings (+4000)
Betting a defensive lineman to win this award certainly isn't a sexy pick, but pricing Hunter as a 40-1 long shot is a serious dismissal of how well he played when last healthy. The Vikings' star edge rusher recorded 14.5 sacks in both 2018 and 2019 before missing all of 2020 with a neck injury.
Hunter is back in full force in 2021 for a Minnesota defense that could certainly use his production. If the 26-year-old can rack up double-digit sacks for the fourth time in five seasons, he's got a legitimate shot at winning, making this an easy play at such long odds.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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