2021 NFL win totals: A bet for all 32 teams
Every year before the start of the NFL season, we identify our best bets on the win total for every team in the league. Would we advise betting all 32 win totals at their current prices? Probably not. Do we plan on cashing all 32 bets, anyway? Naturally.
With the season just two weeks away, here are our best bets for the win totals of every NFL team.
Arizona Cardinals under 8.5The Cardinals were supposed to take a major step forward in 2020. Instead, they finished 8-8 and were merely pedestrian on offense, which was supposed to be Kliff Kingsbury's calling card. With the Rams and 49ers expected to make massive leaps in 2021, Arizona's road is even tougher.
Atlanta Falcons under 7.5Every year, the Falcons are priced to win at least 7.5 games. Every year, they fall apart. When is the market going to adjust? This team still has flashy names at key positions, but the defense remains a calamity after last year's four-win campaign, and the offense might even be worse after trading away Julio Jones.
Baltimore Ravens over 10.5The Ravens had the year from hell in 2020 and still finished with 11 wins in a loaded AFC North. If first-round picks Rashod Bateman and Jayson Oweh can help shore up this team's biggest weaknesses from a season ago, Baltimore will have no trouble getting back to 11 in an expanded 17-game slate.
Buffalo Bills over 10.5I was all over the Bills a year ago, albeit at a much lower number. I still like them as the best team in this division behind an MVP-level quarterback in Josh Allen, a stable coaching staff, and a deep roster on both sides of the ball.
Carolina Panthers over 7.5Hold your nose before betting the over on a Sam Darnold-led team. He only needs to be passable to succeed in Joe Brady's offense, which is chock-full of dynamic playmakers and field-stretchers. There's also enough young talent to make you believe in the defense, which is the true X-factor for the Panthers' season.
Chicago Bears over 7.5I've been high on the Bears since February, well before they signed veteran quarterback Andy Dalton and drafted heir apparent Justin Fields in the first round. Those two are a clear upgrade from Mitchell Trubisky, who still managed to lead Chicago to eight-plus wins in three straight years thanks to a talent-rich defense.
Cincinnati Bengals under 6.5The Bengals won seven games just once in the last five years, and they still finished with a negative point differential that season. In Joe Burrow's first year back from a serious knee injury, keep your expectations low, especially with Cinncinati's tough schedule.
Cleveland Browns over 10.5It's easy to mock the Browns, but if you give them the blind resume treatment, their roster is among the deepest and most versatile in the league. Cleveland won 11 games last year under suboptimal conditions and should eclipse that in a longer 2021 campaign.
Dallas Cowboys under 9.5At full strength, the Cowboys are a 10-win team. I'm skeptical that they'll ever reach full strength, however, given the continued injury concerns regarding star quarterback Dak Prescott. In his absence a year ago, Dallas was a mess on both sides of the ball, so I'm happy to fade this group on the fifth-highest total in the NFC.
Denver Broncos over 8.5The dream of landing Aaron Rodgers is dead, but even with Teddy Bridgewater manning the ship, there are enough pieces here on offense to post league-average totals. The Broncos' real upside is on defense, where an elite pass rush and loaded secondary should generate more turnovers than Denver had in 2020.
Detroit Lions over 5Yes, the Lions are a convenient punching bag with coach Dan Campbell and quarterback Jared Goff leading the way. They've still won at least five games in seven of the last eight seasons, though, and they have enough talent to surprise in a muddled NFC North.
Green Bay Packers under 10.5This is easily the toughest number on the board. The Packers defied expectations with consecutive 13-win seasons thanks to Rodgers' brilliance, but there are still major questions on defense and along the O-line. Factor in a brutal schedule and internal strife, and this could be the year of regression.
Houston Texans under 4This may be a sucker play, but I'd rather be a sucker than put my faith in the Texans, who boast the NFL's least talented roster and murkiest quarterback situation. Since 2004, 39 teams have won fewer than four games - at least one team's done it every year - and, across those 17 seasons, the league's worst outfit has averaged 1.65 wins. Bet on Houston to join that club.
Indianapolis Colts over (N/A)The Colts' win total is off the board with Carson Wentz's health in question. I'd lean to the over once it's back up; this team won 11 games a year ago with a shaky Philip Rivers and should have one of the NFL's best defenses in 2021.
Jacksonville Jaguars under 6.5I like the pieces in Jacksonville more than I like the plan. Top pick Trevor Lawrence will struggle more than some may expect behind an unproven offensive line, and first-time NFL head coach Urban Meyer will be hard-pressed to deliver the Jaguars their second seven-win campaign in 11 seasons.
Kansas City Chiefs over 12.5I faded the Chiefs before last season and paid the price with a 14-win campaign that seemed obvious in hindsight. They're even better this year, with a revamped offensive line and a healthier defense. If Patrick Mahomes stays upright for a full season, this over should be a breeze.
Las Vegas Raiders over 7Where's the love for the Raiders? They won at least seven games in back-to-back seasons despite a horrendous defense that's now been overhauled. Derek Carr delivered three straight 4,000-yard campaigns and has an emerging star in Darren Waller at his disposal. The pieces are there for a breakout year in Las Vegas.
Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5Since 2000, nine quarterbacks have won Offensive Rookie of the Year; six of the last eight finished with a worse record in their sophomore seasons. The ninth passer is Justin Herbert, whose Chargers still have work to do to build upon their 7-9 record in his rookie campaign.
Los Angeles Rams over 10.5I'm all-in on the Rams. A year ago, they boasted the NFL's best defense, but they've long been a top-tier quarterback away from breaking through as a dominant force in the NFC. That changes this season. Matthew Stafford for MVP, anyone?
Miami Dolphins over 9.5Come for the Tua Tagovailoa breakout, stay for one of the most underrated defenses in football. The Dolphins won 10 games a year ago and ranked fifth in points allowed per drive (1.8). They've since improved their pass rush and added elite field-stretchers for Tagovailoa. Watch out for the Fins in 2021.
Minnesota Vikings under 8.5The talent is there for the Vikings to make a run. Will it actually happen? Minnesota won seven games a year ago but simply never looked right, and the team enters this year with plenty of internal turmoil overshadowing what should be a bounce-back year. I'll pass.
New England Patriots under 9.5The Patriots were hit hard by opt-outs and roster attrition in 2020, so it's easy to argue they'll return to normal. I'm still not buying that all is well in New England. They simply don't have the talent on either side of the ball to buy a 10-win campaign, especially with major questions at quarterback.
New Orleans Saints under 9The Saints won at least 11 games in four consecutive seasons, all with Drew Brees under center. New QB1 Jameis Winston has never won more than nine games in his five years as a starter, and he's an awkward fit in an offense that's long been averse to turnovers.
New York Giants under 7.5The Giants' six wins in 2020 were the most they've recorded since their 11-win 2016 campaign, and that was also the only time they won more than 7.5 games in the last eight seasons. Unless Daniel Jones delivers a third-year breakout that nobody sees coming, I just don't buy New York's upside at such a high number.
New York Jets under 6.5There's a lot to like about the Jets' future, but we're talking about one of the worst teams in recent memory winning five more games than they did in 2021, and getting there with a rookie quarterback and first-time head coach. Oh, and their biggest offseason addition, Carl Lawson, is out for the year. No thanks.
Philadelphia Eagles under 6.5If you believe in Jalen Hurts as a productive NFL quarterback, you'll surely take the over on a reasonable number in the league's worst division. Don't count me among the believers. Hurts will be a liability for the Eagles, who already struggled to score points with former top-two pick Wentz at the helm.
Pittsburgh Steelers under 8.5The era of sustained success in Pittsburgh is over. The Steelers beat up on weak competition a year ago, but they face a brutal schedule in 2021, and they'll rely on 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger to lead the way after he appeared to be out of gas last season. This defense is due for regression, too, after losing four starters and several key contributors. Stay far away from this number.
San Francisco 49ers over 10.5The 49ers won 13 games in 2019, but they were the most injured team in the league in 2020 and cratered as a result. I'm betting on them returning to form behind one of the most talented defenses in the NFC - especially if the coaching staff loosens the reins on dynamic rookie Trey Lance.
Seattle Seahawks under 9.5Will the Seahawks finally succumb to regression this season, as we've expected for years? The offensive line is still a problem, and that puts pressure on Russell Wilson to produce magic week in and week out. The defense is also worse on paper than last year's historically inept group. All signs point to a down year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 11.5The Buccaneers' win total sat at 9 or 9.5 last year, depending on when you bought in, which was criminally low for such a stacked roster. This feels a half-win too high, but I'm willing to pay the price on the most complete team in football.
Tennessee Titans over 9The Titans, who have won at least nine games in five straight seasons, quietly owned one of the best offenses in football over the last two years - and that was before adding a star in Julio Jones for virtually nothing. The defense is an issue, but it can't be much worse than it was during last year's 11-win campaign. And playing four games (combined) against the Jaguars and Texans can't hurt.
Washington Football Team over 8.5Very few people expected anything from Washington a year ago - myself included - but Ron Rivera's group surprised with an elite defense and just enough production under center. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clear upgrade at quarterback, and this young defense is just scratching the surface.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.