Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, best bets: Who can top the top pick?
Professional player evaluators spend months assessing each year's class of future NFL players, and the rest of the football world spends every spring scrutinizing which teams should select which player at which point in the NFL draft.
Oddsmakers reshuffle those players a few months later, considering factors like position, opportunity, and team support to determine the odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Here's how the oddsboard for the 2021 rookie crop breaks down, along with a few names that deserve a closer look:
| PLAYER | ODDS | DRAFTED |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | +285 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | +475 | 11 |
| Zach Wilson | +575 | 2 |
| Trey Lance | +575 | 3 |
| Najee Harris | +645 | 24 |
| Mac Jones | +800 | 15 |
| Kyle Pitts | +900 | 4 |
| Ja'marr Chase | +1300 | 5 |
| Devonta Smith | +1500 | 10 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +1900 | 6 |
| Javonte Williams | +1900 | 35 |
| Elijah Moore | +2100 | 34 |
| Trey Sermon | +2300 | 88 |
| Michael Carter | +2900 | 154 |
| Kadarius Toney | +3800 | 20 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | +4700 | 59 |
| Rondale Moore | +5900 | 49 |
| Rashod Bateman | +6900 | 27 |
Trevor Lawrence is this season's favorite and has been labeled as such since his freshman year at Clemson. With the Jaguars boasting more talent, opportunity, and weapons than one would expect from a 1-15 team, Jacksonville's new signal-caller is fairly priced as the most likely winner of the award. Let's examine the list of past winners to see just how likely.
| PLAYER | POSITION | YEAR | DRAFTED |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | WR | 2003 | 54 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | 2004 | 11 |
| Cadillac Williams | RB | 2005 | 5 |
| Vince Young | QB | 2006 | 3 |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | 2007 | 7 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 2008 | 3 |
| Percy Harvin | WR | 2009 | 22 |
| Sam Bradford | QB | 2010 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | QB | 2011 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | QB | 2012 | 2 |
| Eddie Lacy | RB | 2013 | 61 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | 2014 | 12 |
| Todd Gurley | RB | 2015 | 10 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 2016 | 135 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 2017 | 67 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 2018 | 2 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 2019 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 2020 | 6 |
Only two non-running backs won Offensive Rookie of the Year from 1986-2002. But the positional split opened up as the NFL became a pass-first league, with quarterbacks taking home the award half the time from 2003-20. Three wide receivers have won over that span, with Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson nearly making it four last year.
A rookie's draft position doesn't guarantee anything, either, with just eight top-five picks among the last 18 winners. Unlike the MVP award, most anyone can win Offensive Rookie of the Year - as long as they've got the ball in their hands.
Trey Lance (+575)Andrew Luck, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and John Elway were all highly touted top picks who didn't win this award, so we'll bet against Lawrence here. That means backing another quarterback to make a more significant impact or a non-QB to put up some truly impressive stats. A rookie who can do either for a playoff contender is even better.
If the 49ers' last preseason game revealed anything, it's that Trey Lance will likely open the season getting 5-10 reps per half in red-zone and short-yardage packages. Eventually, though, Jimmy Garoppolo will have that bad "Jimmy G" game, opening the door for a takeover. Lance will become a difference-maker as San Francisco wins the NFC West, giving him the edge over Lawrence, who will post better numbers volume-wise for a 6-11 Jaguars team.
Kyle Pitts (+900)A tight end has never won this award. But, as the kids say, "Kyle Pitts just different." He'll surely throw a block or two here and there, but the Falcons made him this year's first non-QB selection to catch passes from Matt Ryan, not to set the edge in the run game. His new head coach, Arthur Smith, was a TE coach for years, so he'll know how to use Pitts. The athletic freak will have ample opportunity with Atlanta, a team that should constantly find itself in shootouts due to its suspect defense. Pitts finally played a preseason snap this past Sunday and took a pass behind the line of scrimmage for 30 yards. If he'd played at all in the Falcons' first two games, his odds might have shortened right up. Fortunately, out of sight equals out of mind for bettors.
Terrace Marshall Jr. (+5000)For those who want to wager on some extreme off-the-board long shots, Vikings rookie Kellen Mond fits the Dak Prescott profile as a non-first-rounder needing an injury to take over a potential playoff team. Rhamondre Stevenson's arrival appears to have influenced the Patriots' decision to trade Sony Michel to the Rams, so perhaps the fourth-round running back winds up bowling over opposing defenses for a ton of TDs.
Instead, though, let's hop out on the ... terrace, backing Marshall to join the "former LSU wideouts who become awesome" club. PFF graded the Panthers rookie as the best first-year wide receiver this preseason. Logging 20.4 yards per reception, he's shown some deep-ball capability and will be facing opponents' second- or third-best cornerbacks.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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