Surging Conservatives now poised to win more seats than Liberals, poll analysis says

OTTAWA-The Conservatives began the federal election mocked for a spoof video many said called into question how serious they were about forming government. But the Star's analysis of polling data suggests that at the midpoint of the campaign, it's become a serious prospect they could.

The analysis from The Signal, Vox Pop Labs' election forecast for the Star, shows Erin O'Toole's Conservatives with the support of 36.1 per cent of voters, compared to 30 per cent for Justin Trudeau's Liberals.

The projection also puts the Conservatives at 154 seats in the House of Commons to the Liberals' 126; when Trudeau called the election the Liberals held 155 seats.

The New Democrats have 19.3 per cent support, and would take 37 seats.

The Bloc Quebecois have 6.2 per cent support and would take 20 seats, and the Greens one seat and 4.3 per cent.

The Conservatives' share of seats would be enough to form a minority government. One hundred and seventy seats are needed for a majority government.

While the Tories had been pulling ahead in vote share already, the latest data is the first time they've jumped ahead in seat share - and it is thanks to Ontario, says Clifton van der Linden, a political scientist and founder of Vox Pop Labs.

Ontario is really where this race is being fought right now," van der Linden said.

The Signal forecast is generated by a model that takes a poll of polls going back to 2009, accounts for each political polling firm's house bias," and compares those surveys against election results.

The analysis as of Aug. 31 added results from seven new polls released from the last update on Monday.

The analysis shows Conservatives began to break away from the Liberals in polls released after Aug. 23 - the end of the first two weeks of the campaign.

The Liberals had a rocky start, facing questions immediately about why they were calling an election with a fourth wave of COVID-19 underway and getting knocked off message by the swift collapse of Afghanistan into the hands of the Taliban the day the election began.

Afghanistan dominated questions to Trudeau at the outset, and has taken three prominent ministers off the campaign trail to focus on dealing with the aftermath.

While for the first two weeks the Liberals lobbed attack after attack against O'Toole on his stand on access to abortion, medical assistance in dying, privatized health care and his opposition to national daycare, the polls suggest very little has landed in the public's mindset so far.

Earnscliffe strategist Shakir Chambers said O'Toole has so far been able to largely bat away those attacks with a single weapon: his party's platform.

Dropping it on day two of the campaign gave the Conservatives focus, and in Ontario in particular the fact the Tories are now acknowledging climate change requires carbon pricing, opens up room for voters to be receptive to the party on other issues.

Now they're saying OK, Erin, tell us what you think on affordability. Tell us what you think about health care," Chambers said.

I think that message is getting a lot of traction."

The Liberal platform itself didn't emerge until Wednesday, a trajectory the party had said was part of the plan all along as the election heads into a number of crucial milestones: the first French-language debate between the leaders is Thursday night, and there are a pair of debates set for next week.

With the platform out the door, the Liberals will use it to drive their narrative around why they've taken Canadians to the polls: building back from the COVID-19 pandemic means choices need to be made now that will shape the country for years to come and Canadians deserve a say in which path they want to follow.

The policy they're putting forward on that score will likely be matched by increasingly aggressive attacks on the Conservatives, be it O'Toole himself or his candidates, and the challenge for O'Toole is how he handles it, Chambers said.

Now we know that you have a plan, we know what you're going to do - but are you prime ministerial material?," he said.

And I think that's going to be the question that he's going to have to address moving forward."

None of the parties are counting on the polls today holding steady, as they've all seen leads come and go. In 2015, the NDP began the campaign nearly tied for first place, by the end they'd dropped 20 points.

The Liberals point to their recent fundraising numbers as proof their message is resonating - the party claims that August was the best month for online fundraising for any campaign they've ever run.

They also say they still think people aren't switched on, and that will change after Labour Day weekend.

If that were entirely true, then vote share in the polls would have remained constant, van der Linden points out.

It's possible that people who have this anti-incumbent sentiment are the ones paying attention right now, and maybe there is a throw the bums out' mentality," he said.

But other subsets might start paying attention and that might result in other swings."

Very recent developments in the campaign - aggressive protests dogging Trudeau, and controversies around his candidates, including one the party let run despite allegations of sexual harassment - are new enough that if they're changing the polls it's too soon to say.

Another unknown is what will happen with the NDP. The party is picking up support from the Liberals in British Columbia, but where its support goes in Ontario could determine the outcome in that province.

The Conservatives' gains at this point in the campaign may be a catalyst for more obviously strategic voting among Ontarians: a consolidation of progressive votes around the Liberals as a means to stymie the Conservatives," van der Linden said.

The next week will really be important in getting a sense of whether the Conservatives are maintaining their momentum."

Stephanie Levitz is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @StephanieLevitz