Best bets to win the NFL rushing title: Take a bite of that Oh Henry!
For player prop markets, we always try to determine who to back lower on the board, as there's rarely much value on the favorite. We tend to discuss reasons not to back the chalk and pick out guys who appear ready to make the leap.
However, when it comes to the NFL rushing title market, it's impossible to ignore the King.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | +400 |
| Dalvin Cook | +550 |
| Nick Chubb | +800 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +1000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +1000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +1300 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +1500 |
| Antonio Gibson | +2000 |
| Joe Mixon | +2000 |
| Aaron Jones | +2000 |
| Najee Harris | +2500 |
| Josh Jacobs | +2800 |
| Gus Edwards | +2800 |
| Chris Carson | +3000 |
| Sony Michel | +3000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +3300 |
| Miles Sanders | +3300 |
| David Montgomery | +3500 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +4000 |
| James Robinson | +4400 |
| Mike Davis | +4500 |
| Alvin Kamara | +5000 |
| D'Andre Swift | +5000 |
| Austin Ekeler | +5500 |
| Damien Harris | +6500 |
| Raheem Mostert | +10000 |
Unless the Titans accidentally lit their playbooks on fire, threw their computers and hard drives into said fire, and collectively used the memory-deleting wands from "Men In Black" to forget that run plays exist, they should continue to run Henry to near perfection, even with former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith now in Atlanta. The Titans also get their cornerstone of the offensive line, Taylor Lewan, back from ACL surgery. Henry's per-game yardage compared to the competition allows for him to even miss a game or two.
The honor is Henry's to lose. If someone told you there was a relatively easy-money +400 bet you could make now and get paid in early January, you'd probably be all over it. But we're conditioned to not take the chalk in these markets when there's a wealth of lucrative options.
Gus Edwards (+2800)Let's say you're a terrible person and hope for a significant injury to Henry. All is fair in love and war ... and sports betting, after all. Henry's had more than 700 touches in the last two years, so injury isn't out of the realm of possibility. Plus, just three running backs have won the rushing title in three consecutive years (Jim Brown, Earl Campbell, and Emmitt Smith). An injury to Henry would drop the rushing-yardage target to a more attainable mark of around 1,500 yards, making a number of players possible contenders.
The obvious ones are listed around 10-1, but since we're already dealing with an unlikely circumstance, we might as well play a long shot or two in the betting market. The Ravens were the only team to attempt more runs than the Titans last season. Part of that is Lamar Jackson zooming around, but with J.K. Dobbins injured and Mark Ingram in Houston, Gus Edwards has a clear path to a ton of carries.
Damien Harris (+6500)The Patriots finished third in rushing attempts last season thanks in part to the 137 that came from Cam Newton. While Mac Jones won't be repeating that, the Pats also won't see eight men in the box as they did with Newton struggling to throw deep and being a constant threat to run. New England dealt Sony Michel to the Rams, paving the way for 20-plus carries per game for Harris. If he can maintain his 5.0 yards per carry from last season - or improve on it, given the softer schedule - he'll be a legitimate challenger in this market.
Raheem Mostert (+10000)I'm convinced that all you'd need for a 100-1 shot to get home here - other than a Henry injury - is Mostert to stay healthy for 17 games and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan let him loose. Mostert maxed out at 17 carries once last season and missed over a month due to injury, so perhaps those two needs are in concert. Mostert's speed pops off the screen, and the 49ers' run-game design is the closest thing to ballet you're going to see on NFL Sundays. Adding Trey Lance's legs also helps throw defenses off the scent, while Mostert's explosiveness makes him a constant threat to take it to the house.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.
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