Best bets to lead the NFL in receiving yards: Digging up some candidates
Last season, the Most Receiving Yards market was like a craps table after someone rolls a seven-out - sportsbooks everywhere basically took a rake and wiped all the money off the table when Stefon Diggs secured the title. Diggs was 20-1, not a particularly popular pick, on a new team, paired with a quarterback NFL connoisseurs weren't particularly high on, and playing in a stadium that's not traditionally conducive to catching passes.
But 2020 showed us that if any season-long player prop market is ripe for a dark horse to win, this is it.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | +800 |
| Justin Jefferson | +900 |
| Stefon Diggs | +900 |
| Davante Adams | +1000 |
| Deandre Hopkins | +1000 |
| Tyreek Hill | +1000 |
| DK Metcalf | +1200 |
| Travis Kelce | +1400 |
| AJ Brown | +1600 |
| DJ Moore | +1800 |
| Amari Cooper | +2000 |
| Terry McLaurin | +2000 |
| Allen Robinson II | +2200 |
| Keenan Allen | +2200 |
| Michael Thomas | +2200 |
| Mike Evans | +2500 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +2800 |
| Julio Jones | +2800 |
| Chris Godwin | +3000 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | +3200 |
| Kenny Golladay | +3500 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +3800 |
| Will Fuller V | +3800 |
| Cooper Kupp | +4000 |
| Darren Waller | +4000 |
| Tee Higgins | +4000 |
| Diontae Johnson | +4200 |
| Robert Woods | +4200 |
| Courtland Sutton | +5000 |
| George Kittle | +5000 |
| Robby Anderson | +5500 |
Pick your favorite advanced receiving analytic. Whether you're on the aDOT or the air yards hype train, Calvin Ridley has what you're looking for, and that's why he's atop the odds board despite not being all that close to leading the league before. Despite garnering 143 targets while leading the NFL in air yards, he finished 5th last season.
The word is out on Diggs, and with the shorter price, I'm out. Diggs was dealt to the Bills for the draft pick that the Vikings turned into Justin Jefferson, and he seemed like a sneaky target for this market - until we look above and see that he's not so sneaky at all.
I'm using Weeks 4-16 of the 2020 NFL season as a baseline for wide receivers, so we can compare Jefferson - who didn't start the first three - to the more established guys while also removing any Week 17 wackiness.
From there, we're going to look at three key metrics and set minimum parameters:
| ADOT (Avg. Depth of Target) | Air Yards | Targets | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | 8.0 yds | 1000 | 100 |
Seven receivers fit within those qualifications. Diggs' outstanding campaign gets him on the list, but we'll fade him to repeat it, and Terry McLaurin just squeezes in there with 101 targets and 1,007 air yards in Weeks 4-16. While that feat is impressive with the quarterbacks he had, at +2000, McLaurin's odds are a little short. DeAndre Hopkins qualifies, but there are now more mouths to feed with the Cardinals adding weapons for Kyler Murray this offseason.
Tyreek Hill (+1000)Tyreek Hill's aDOT and air yards are unsurprisingly high at 12.95 and 1,437, respectively. Plus, he caught just 64.8% of Patrick Mahomes' passes during this section of the campaign, meaning there's plenty of room for the actual yard totals to grow if the two can connect a little more frequently. Hill finished the season 260 yards shy of Diggs in 15 games. Hypothetically, if we could get one more catch per game from Hill at 14.6 yards per catch for his career, that would more than make up that discrepancy.
Davante Adams (+1000)Davante Adams was my bet last year, and this one was frustrating. He missed two games early in the season and still almost tracked down Diggs. Adams' aDOT isn't great, but we all know it's the targets and accuracy from Aaron Rodgers that allow the wideout to pile up yards after the catch. You can fill in your own narrative about the two and their "Last Dance" for this coming season.
Allen Robinson (+2200)I'm glad Allen Robinson made the list because it provides more analytical evidence than simply saying the following: We always hear how great Robinson is and how big a year he could have if he actually had a legit quarterback throwing to him.
Well, here's his chance.
I'm more than familiar with conversion rates as a Canadian, but usually for currency. Compiling 1,250 yards with Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky should have its own designated conversion rate to a functional quarterback. If he can get a 10% bump from better throws, 1,350 yards is the minimum for Robinson.
Andy Dalton is few people's idea of a good time, but he's had a better career than either of the aforementioned or Blake Bortles. Plus, if Justin Fields is good enough to play, then that can only be good news for Robinson.
Robby Anderson (+5500)The surprise of the list, Robby Anderson quietly had 95 catches and 1,096 yards last year, but you were likely upset if he was on your fantasy team because he only put up three touchdowns. Now he's reunited with former Jets teammate Sam Darnold, and since the pair have established chemistry, Anderson could end up with a significant upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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