NFL Week 1 teasers: Defining betting value when moving the line
When doling out betting advice, I often feel the need to remind people that I'm not responsible for their tears. And since you can't spell teaser without t-e-a-r-s, every Tuesday during the season we'll discuss what NFL teams are worthy of being teased for the upcoming week.
This is about which clubs you should tease from a mathematically correct standpoint. We'll use the most profitable version: the 6-point teaser.
While different sportsbooks offer different pricing, you can generally assume that each leg of a teaser comes at a price of -270. Let's use the clash between the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs, one of the most anticipated Week 1 games, as an example.
| Spread | Odds |
|---|---|
| ML | -270 |
| -1 | -240 |
| -1.5 | -225 |
| -2 | -210 |
| -2.5 | -205 |
| -3 | -185 |
| -3.5 | -150 |
| -4 | -145 |
| -4.5 | -140 |
| -5 | -135 |
| -5.5 | -125 |
| -6 | -110 |
Taking the Chiefs from -6 down to a pick'em can be done using the money line, or with a second game as part of a tease. Each leg will cost you -270, and that's slightly shorter than -110 when parlayed together. Adding another leg looks appetizing when the payout moves up to +160. But remember, that's just plugging in another -270 piece to the parlay.
Not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through 0. You're wasting valuable price points on a number the game probably isn't going to land on since matchups can't end in a tie. So how can we maximize the 6-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg?
The final spreads of NFL contests often finish on key numbers due to the nature of the game, with 30% ending on three, six, or seven. In recent years, more games are landing on four, five, and eight following a change in attitude about two-point conversions. Consequently, capturing as many numbers as possible between three and eight with a teaser leg is how to get the most value for your bet.
A -110 price indicates a 52.4% win probability, and a -270 price indicates a 73% win probability. So to make our teaser leg valuable, we need to increase its win probability by 20.6%. Capturing 30% more of the overall winning margins helps to accomplish that.
Here's a list of Week 1 spreads that fit mathematically for teasing. These aren't recommendations, but rather options thrown into the "Teaser Basket" to use if you like that team in its game.
Teaser Basket| Teaser side | Spread | 6-point teaser leg |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -8 | -2 |
| Washington Football Team | +1.5 | +7.5 |
| New York Jets | +5 | +11 |
| Buffalo Bills | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -7.5 | -1.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -6 | PK |
| New York Giants | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | +4.5 | +10.5 |
| Miami Dolphins | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -7.5 | -1.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +4.5 | +10.5 |
Sometimes there are two decent options for a teaser leg in the same game, like bringing the Cowboys up to +14 against the Bucs on Thursday, even if it's not mathematically optimal.
Games with lines at -3 or -3.5 don't offer good side options for a teaser leg. From a value standpoint, teasing a game up to 9 isn't worth it because of how infrequently NFL games land on that winning margin. Teasing 7.5-point favorites down to -1.5 gets you a lot of valuable numbers, but it leaves bettors open to losing on the dreaded one-point win.
Now that you know the math, take as many legs as you want from the basket. But keep in mind how much risk you're willing to take, and being responsible for your own tears.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.
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