NFL Week 1 player props: Who to back for a big season debut

Actionable content is the name of the game.

To celebrate the return of NFL Sundays, let's find one prop bet per game you can feel overjoyed to bet - pun intended:

Najee Harris over 59.5 rushing yards

The Steelers drafted the Alabama product in the first round to gain more balance on offense. Volume is key here as Harris will get his carries, so it comes down to the offensive line's ability to create lanes. The Bills gave up the third-most rushing yards per game of the 14 playoff teams, which is concerning given how often they led their contests last season.

Donovan Peoples-Jones over 25.5 receiving yards

Call him a late-bloomer, but Peoples-Jones is ready for a bigger roll on the Browns, and he's flying under the radar here. This game could be a shootout, so whether it's 3- or 4-wide sets, there will be targets for Peoples-Jones in a back-and-forth affair.

Austin Ekeler over 20.5 receiving yards

Fear tore through the land when hamstring issues kept Ekeler out of practice this week, and if he can't go, then we'll get this bet refunded. If he can play, look for Ekeler to be the perfect outlet for Justin Herbert against Washington's aggressive pass rush.

Michael Pittman over 48.5 receiving yards

Pittman has a big role with T.Y. Hilton injured, and in a likely high-scoring game, his ability to produce yards after the catch will allow him to shed some tackles from a Seahawks defense on the downturn. The wideout's capable of some deep target jump balls as well, so there are multiple ways for this to cash.

Raheem Mostert over 68.5 rushing yards

If Mostert is healthy, bet on him to do well. That's the rule. Mostert will get first crack at 15-plus carries in the 49ers' run game ballet, and I expect him to break one or two big rushes. Mostert should cruise to five yards per carry against a bad Lions defense, which the math tells us is comfortably over 68.5 yards.

A.J. Green over 36.5 receiving yards

Out of sight, out of mind. After playing through various injuries over the last two campaigns, A.J. Green has a chance to match up against the opponent's worst corner for the first time in his career. Let's buy low on the former Pro Bowler to revive his reputation against a sketchy Titans secondary.

Laviska Shenault over 1.5 rushing yards

I couldn't decide whether to make Tyrod Taylor over 17.5 rushing yards or Trevor Lawrence over 15.5 rushing yards my best prop bet for this game, but when I saw this one available, I shifted gears. Urban Meyer loves hybrid receiver/running backs, dating back to his days with Percy Harvin or Curtis Samuel. Meyer will bust out a run play or two for Shenault here, with this bet likely cashing on his first attempt.

Robby Anderson over 50.5 receiving yards

I wrote about the season-long receiving yards market, and to my surprise, I found Anderson has some metrics indicators to contend there at 50-1. As a result, I'll see if he can start the campaign well with D.J. Moore getting some big-time attention on the other side from a shallow Jets secondary.

Courtland Sutton over 48.5 receiving yards

People may have forgotten just how good Sutton was before his ACL surgery. He doesn't even need to be awesome to beat this number, so I'm happy to take the risk on him still being a little rusty here.

Kyle Pitts over 47.5 receiving yards

I'm driving the Pitts bandwagon and am willing to make this prediction: This is the lowest yards-prop number we'll see on him all season. Pitts goes over here, and we'll never see a number shorter than 50 again.

Damien Harris over 69.5 rushing yards

Sony Michel is gone, Cam Newton carries are a thing of the past, and Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off a dislocated thumb. The Patriots will give it to Harris a ton, and he'll flirt with 100 yards.

Adam Thielen Anytime TD +125

Justin Jefferson gets all the attention, especially in your fantasy draft. However, with the Vikings losing both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, Kirk Cousins' red zone security blanket is Thielen. With twice as many touchdowns last year as Jefferson despite playing one fewer game, look for Thielen to score against a shoddy Bengals secondary.

Alvin Kamara over 46.5 receiving yards

I'm on record saying we're all too worried about the Saints' offense. Alvin Kamara had 13 receptions for 139 yards against the Packers last campaign, so I don't see why he wouldn't get at least half that this time around.

Matthew Stafford over 23.5 pass completions

Sean McVay has to be like a kid in a toy store after replacing Jared Goff with Matthew Stafford. Since the Rams' coach doesn't play his stars in the preseason, this is his first chance to take his new toy out for a spin. Using a short-passing attack, Stafford clears this completion total easily on Sunday night.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.