NFL Week 1 betting takeaways: Early ratings adjustments

NFL Sundays are back, giving us the opportunity to ritualistically cover ourselves in combinations of Cheeto dust, pizza sauce, and beverage splatter after reacting to officiating injustices.

Before we turn the page to Week 2 and our next ritual - overreacting to one game - let's see which squads actually deserve a bump up or down in our team ratings.

The Browns deserved better

Baker Mayfield and his crew came out hot, stayed hot, and for the second straight game dating back to the playoffs last January, the Browns almost pulled off the upset at Arrowhead against the Chiefs.

Based on some of the advanced metrics and a pair of 12-point leads, Cleveland should have won this game by double digits. As a result, I'm moving the Browns up from 70 to 75 (out of 100) in my ratings even after a loss. I have them as 12.8 points better than the Texans next week.

The Saints' demise was greatly exaggerated

Here's a two-birds-with-one-stone situation after we were all over this one last week, calling Packers-Saints the upset of Week 1.

I'm leaving the Packers at 65/100 because they weren't high to begin with. Meanwhile, the Saints' 38-3 win showed Jameis Winston is in a better system for him, but that's only if the team's rushing offense dominates, and New Orleans rushed for 171 yards on Sunday. Since my hunch was correct for one day, I'll move the Saints up to 65, too.

Saying these teams should be a pick 'em on a neutral field is more palatable now for the public than it was last week. However, even with the upgrade, I only have the Saints at -1.6 in Carolina for Week 2.

Kyler Murray does Kyler Murray things

The Cardinals quarterback reminded us how electric he can be while leading an offense that averaged 6.2 yards per play, but how well Arizona's defense handled the Titans surprised me more.

Generating three turnovers, six sacks, and allowing only 3.9 yards per play was better than I expected from the Cardinals defensively. Moving them up to 63/100 might not be high enough, but I'll need to see Arizona perform well for one more week at least before losing my mind. That's why they're only 3.2 points better than Minnesota at home in Week 2.

Like the Packers, I was low on the Titans to start the season, so there's not a big adjustment to be made.

Break up the Texans!

Houston's front office has been trying to break up the Texans, and I'll be darned if the club's executives didn't go out and make this team functional.

Tyrod Taylor showed what a veteran quarterback can do while making mostly simple plays against the Jaguars, and Brandin Cooks was able to secure the ball when the passer occasionally went for something big. The Jaguars as 3.5-point road favorites was never a sensible idea, so we're not going wild here following Houston's 37-21 win. But even "meh" is a pretty big upgrade after how most people rated the Texans rated prior to Week 1. Let's bump them up to 30/100 alongside the likes of the Lions, Jets, and, yes, the Jags.

The apple doesn't fall far from Anthony Lynn

Or Mike McCoy, or Norv Turner. A new head coach in Brandon Staley hasn't fixed the sloppy, silly, and lazy plays that have plagued the Chargers for years, causing potentially easy wins to get super weird. A nondescript game against the Washington Football Team should have been simple, but although they still won, the Chargers did things like not jump on loose fumbles, take drive-extending defensive penalties, and other mistakes not shown in the box score.

Lynn deserves lots of blame for the club's recent bad record in one-score games, but there's still plenty of work ahead for Staley. Escaping the DMV with a one-score win was more impressive than getting out of your local DMV in under an hour.

If it weren't for their trademark miscues, the Chargers would be worthy of a bump up from 65/100 because Justin Herbert is still awesome. But I have them 2.2 points better than Dallas for Week 2.

Oh, the Falcons are baaaaad, bad

Eagles fans won't like hearing this, but their team's comfy 32-6 win was more so a product of the Falcons' sheer ineptitude. That's why the Eagles stay at 45/100, even after impressive play along both lines.

Many excuses are made for Matt Ryan, but how many coaches must we blame for the Falcons' red-zone incompetence before putting it on Ryan's shoulders? Of course, the dirtiest of birds eventually just didn't even get to the red zone, which was a bigger issue for apparent offensive guru Arthur Smith.

Atlanta is heading toward a league-bottom rating at a generous 38/100. I have the Falcons 12.1 points worse than the Buccaneers next week.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.

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