Insiders fear Conservatives are losing the election as party makes a last-minute appeal for help

OTTAWA-The Conservative campaign is making a last-minute appeal for more volunteers as the federal election heads into a crucial weekend for mobilizing supporters and getting out the vote.

But senior party sources are concerned about an enthusiasm gap" among the party faithful, particularly in the GTA, that could cost the Conservatives in tight riding contests.

I certainly see a lack of enthusiasm amongst the people I talk to," said one Tory source, discussing the situation on the condition they not be identified.

That sort of went away when it looked like we were going to win. Everyone loves a winner."

That early Conservative optimism at the outset of the campaign has dissipated as the polls tightened. And while most public polling puts the party neck-and-neck with the Liberals, more pessimistic Tories acknowledge that a tie in national voter support likely signals another win for Justin Trudeau.

That's because the Conservative vote has traditionally been concentrated in Western Canada, where the party is immensely popular - and that skews the national numbers. In 2019, the Conservatives won the popular vote with overwhelming Western support, but still won fewer seats than Trudeau's Liberals.

There's a lot of little things that I don't think bode super well. Desire for change (among the electorate) is still too low, Erin (O'Toole's) personal numbers are better but not great, the advance poll data shows no significant growth in seats where we (could win)," the source said.

Former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer faced intense pressure to step down after the 2019 election, particularly for his failure to deliver seats in the GTA - a region seen as critical for the Conservatives to win back power after six years in opposition.

O'Toole, who represents the Ontario riding of Durham, won the resulting leadership contest in part by pledging to deliver Toronto-area seats.

But there are troubling signs for the party in Ontario as the campaign enters its final days.

The Star talked to five party sources who are involved either directly and indirectly in the campaign about ground game" efforts in the GTA. Three acknowledged that the party is having difficulty attracting volunteers for in-person activities like canvassing door to door.

There are ridings that should have a ton of volunteers (that) have little. There's some ridings in the 905 where they've got like eight solid volunteers and that's it," said one source.

(And) they're happy to have the eight that they have."

That opinion is not universally shared, and the situation varies from riding to riding. It also appears to be connected to the candidate. Four sources said ridings like Thornhill, where party stalwart Melissa Lantsman is running in a Conservative-held riding, are doing fine.

Neighbouring ridings with candidates who are less good at this are not," one source told the Star.

The Star shared the findings of this reporting with the Conservative campaign. In a statement, the campaign said the Star's sources are misinformed" and that the party has never in their history been better prepared for an election, as you will see on Monday."

Justin Trudeau broke Canadians' trust when he called an unnecessary election, so how can Canadians trust anything he says?" asked Chelsea Tucker, spokesperson for the O'Toole campaign.

A senior campaign source was more blunt.

What the Star's sources are saying is pure crap," the source said. For the past year we've been reading these people telling us that Erin O'Toole can't win.

Now, victory is within reach, and they can't stand the thought that they were wrong all this time."

On Wednesday, the party sent an email blast to supporters urging them to sign up to help their local campaigns.

That means we need to knock on more doors and make more phone calls. In order to defeat Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government, we must connect with voters and identify supporters," said the email, which was obtained by the Star.

It's the final stretch of the campaign and we can't afford to slow down now."

New polling from Campaign Research, a firm run by longtime Conservative operative Nick Kouvalis, suggests the party's get-out-the-vote efforts are going to be crucial, particularly in fending off an insurgent People's Party of Canada running to O'Toole's right.

It looks close, but I really don't think Erin is going to win," said one senior provincial Tory, pointing to the Campaign Research finding that the People's Party is siphoning enough votes from the Tories in key Ontario ridings to help re-elect the Liberals.

That includes the potential loss of Tory seats in places like Barrie and Aurora and the re-election of Liberal MPs in ridings the Conservatives hope to pick up in Oakville, King City, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, and Kitchener-Waterloo, among others.

That PPC vote could wipe out all those narrow (2019 election) wins and take target seats off the table," said the provincial Tory.

And there's really nothing Erin can do at this point," said the PC insider, expressing concern about the enthusiasm People's Party Leader Maxime Bernier has generated at rallies in southwestern Ontario.

Another provincial Tory said the threat of Bernier effectively boxed in O'Toole so the federal leader couldn't embrace vaccination mandates.

Doug Ford was firing (Chatham area MPP) Rick Nicholls (for refusing to get a COVID-19 shot) and Erin O'Toole couldn't even tell you guys how many of his candidates were vaccinated," said the second Tory, referring to O'Toole's refusal to discuss Conservative candidates' vaccination status.

We've taken that issue off the table. They didn't."

Stephanie Levitz is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @StephanieLevitz

Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

Alex Boutilier is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @alexboutilier