Who has faith in politics? In 2019, some Toronto areas saw nearly half their electorate skip out
The first and only time Charmaine Weir voted in an election, a single conversation spurred her to the polls. A candidate was canvassing in her neighbourhood, and took time to hear out the issues Weir faced on a day-to-day basis, including the challenges she experienced living in public housing. But the vote came and went - and Weir's world felt just the same.
She found herself disenchanted, feeling her vote hadn't made a difference. You see (political parties), they come around and solicit at the door to try to get your vote, and then you never see them again. Nothing has ever changed in this neighbourhood," she said. This fall, she's tuned out of federal election talk. I didn't listen because honestly, you get really let down."
Come Monday, she told the Star she doesn't intend to cast a vote.
Weir's situation illustrates a broad issue in Toronto. In an election cycle, candidates look to charge up the masses - promising policy changes and funding injections. But faith in the democratic process, or simply the ability to get to the polls, is unevenly distributed across the city.
A Star analysis of poll data from the 2019 election, in several central Toronto ridings, shows that while some areas turn out to vote in droves - like Runnymede-Bloor West Village, where 78.3 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots - other areas, like Weir's North St. James Town, had far lower rates.
The high-density, lower-income piece of Toronto Centre, where several other residents recently told the Star their faith in federal leaders ran low, saw a voter turnout of 52.1 per cent in the fall of 2019. In nearby Regent Park, another lower-income area, turnout for that federal vote was 58.5 per cent. By comparison, the neighbouring Cabbagetown-South St. James Town area saw turnout of 68.5 per cent. Across the country, voter turnout for the last federal election was 67 per cent.
And while North St. James Town had more eligible voters - 11,989 versus 9,831 - the polling stations set up in Cabbagetown-South St. James Town saw more ballots cast than its neighbour.
It's always the rich people and the rich neighbourhoods that are being taken care of," Weir told the Star. You really want (a politician) here who's going to follow through, and support this neighbourhood, but they tend to just move a little bit south from here and you're left there, like, what about us?'"
The reasons why someone doesn't vote can vary widely, but a Statistics Canada survey found the top reason that Canadians gave for skipping the 2019 federal vote was disinterest in national politics - which experts say can stem from a feeling of being left out of political discussions and policies.
They don't perceive that the stakes are very high - that it doesn't matter who wins, so why bother?" said Richard Johnston, a University of British Columbia professor emeritus who, until his retirement last year, held the position of Canada Research Chair in public opinions, elections and representation.
To some extent, the squeaky wheel gets the grease," said Daniel Rubenson, a principal investigator for the Canadian Election Study, cautioning that the problem could become cyclical. If politicians saw a neighbourhood as plagued by voter apathy, they might pay less attention to its needs, leading to fewer policies aimed at addressing its local problems. That, in turn, could compound the apathy issue.
If that's how you feel, then it's perfectly reasonable that you don't participate in that process."
When the Star spoke with numerous North St. James Town residents midway through this fall's federal campaign, many lamented the focus placed on home ownership in numerous parties' election platforms, as a neighbourhood where 90 per cent of residents rented their homes according to the 2016 federal census.
Beyond the disenchanted, some prospective voters simply didn't have the time to invest in political issues, Rubenson added.
He, Johnston and Elisabeth Gidengil, a professor with McGill University's Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship, all noted that residents of lower income communities were statistically less likely to participate in the democratic process.
Voters' age and level of education were also determining factors, the experts said. Nationally, 18-to-24 year olds had the lowest voter turnout among age groups through the 2011, 2015 and 2019 election races, Statistics Canada found. Voter turnout increased continually with age, until it dipped down slightly after the age of 75.
It's partly to do with resources, like just having time and the luxury of being able to inform yourself better about politics," Rubenson said, noting that socialization and mobilization" also played a role. While it was somewhat difficult" to say precisely how low turnout affected vote outcomes, he said, he believes the onus is on politicians to pay more attention to these people who aren't voting."
It's certainly not a good outcome if there are groups in society, or areas in society, where people aren't being listened to and policies aren't being developed to take their concerns into account," he said.
While political disinterest was found by Statistics Canada to be the most common reason for skipping the polls in 2019 for most age groups - having been cited by 35 per cent of non-voters - that shifts for people over 75, at which point the most common reason reported was an illness or disability.
Across all age groups, illness or disability were cited by 13 per cent of responding non-voters. Another 22 per cent said they were too busy to vote, and 11 per cent said they were out of town. Just five per cent reported having problems with the voting process itself, like being unable to prove their identity.
Asked about the turnout data, Elections Canada spokesperson Nathalie de Montigny said turnout wasn't part of its mandate - which focused on making the vote accessible to eligible electors. That job included outreach to different communities to make sure they had information about voting, like delivering it in different languages.
To combat voter apathy, both Johnston and Gidengil said candidates going door-to-door can make a difference. But Johnston cautioned that effort could be complicated in lower-income neighbourhoods, where many residents may work long hours or do shift work and not be home to answer the door, and where that means traversing an apartment versus ground-level homes.
In Toronto's waterfront and island neighbourhood, where the median household income is higher than the citywide rate but the resident population also skews younger than other neighbourhoods, around 20,000 eligible voters didn't cast ballots in the 2019 race. The area - which is divided between two federal ridings - had a 64.1 per cent turnout rate. In nearby South Parkdale, the rate was nearly as low as North St. James Town, at 56.4 per cent.
Cole Webber, a housing advocate who works for a South Parkdale-based legal clinic, cautioned that residents of the area were still actively involved, with local groups forming to push back against things like rent increases, or to organize community food programs.
But casting a vote didn't always garner the same vigour or faith.
For many working-class people in Parkdale, sustained, independent organizing is a more substantial and meaningful form of activity than voting in elections," Webber said.
Victoria Gibson is a Toronto-based reporter for the Star covering affordable housing. Reach her via email: victoriagibson@thestar.ca