NFL Week 4 player props: Game plans determine opportunity

A profitable 8-3 week gives our player props a shot of life. The information is piling up on what these teams do well, and how they do it, which makes our lives a little easier after wearing a blindfold early in the season.

Chuba Hubbard over 54.5 rush yards

The Cowboys' run defense got the night off Monday, which was a bizarre turn of events from the Eagles' coaching staff, which left Miles Sanders out of the offensive game plan. Sanders received just two carries, scampering for 27 yards.

Considering both of the Cowboys' previous opponents didn't run the football, I'm not scared off by the Dallas run defense. Hubbard will get the carries with Christian McCaffrey out, and 15 totes should push this over, with the possibility of the former track star cracking a big run.

As an aside, there's no yardage prop available yet for a Panthers tight end, but Carolina just dealt Dan Arnold to Jacksonville. They've decided they have a suitable replacement in former Notre Dame tight end, Tommy Tremble. If you can find a prop on Tremble, bet on his success - either an over or an anytime TD +400.

David Montgomery under 72.5 rush yards

In 2021, many teams will allow some room to run as an alternative to having an offense throw on them at will. We saw this in Week 1 as David Montgomery was able to go for 108 yards against the Rams. Dan Campbell's Lions don't have the same attitude. They want to fight you in the trenches and out-tough you. I expect a defensive game plan from the Lions, designed to force whoever starts for the Bears at quarterback to beat them.

Stefon Diggs over 83.5 receiving yards

Diggs hasn't had a massive game yet this season. The Bills aren't likely to just sit on a lead - it's not their style - so Josh Allen will be throwing early and often here, and there's no one on the Texans capable of doing much about it.

Jaylen Waddle over 3.5 receptions

Jacoby Brissett made it clear who he trusts last week. We thought Mike Gesicki would be one of those, and we were right. This week, I'll shift gears to Jaylen Waddle, who caught 12 balls, but many were short targets. So let's stick with receptions instead of yards as our over here.

Miles Sanders over 59.5 rush yards

I hope Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen flipped on the game film against the Cowboys at some point and thought to themselves: "wait, where's Miles?" If that's the case, they have some making up to do with his usage against a Chiefs team that's been flat-out terrible at stopping the run.

Daniel Jones over 22.5 rush yards

Let's get speedy Daniel Jones out on the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium! The Saints' defense has only given up 60 yards per game on the ground, against teams that actually want to run: Packers, Panthers, and Patriots. This should make life difficult for Saquon Barkley, but none of those teams brought the dual-threat element. Between scrambles and designed runs, Jones will clear this number.

Corey Davis over 51.5 receiving yards

Davis has had a rough go the last two weeks with Zach Wilson tortured by Bill Belichick's and Vic Fangio's defense. This week, he's going up against a Titans secondary that is 23rd in yards per attempt against. Davis will see more success, similar to Week 1 when he had 98 yards and two touchdowns.

Kyle Pitts over 48.5 receiving yards

We're just going to do this all year. Back to 1-2 on our guy Pittsy after last week, Matt Ryan will be panic-throwing to his tight end while the Washington Football Team blows by the Falcons' offensive line. Pitts could crack a decent run after the catch, and like in Week 2, clear the 50 mark.

Teddy Bridgewater under 243.5 passing yards

Whether it was turnovers or three-and-outs, the Broncos have been handed the ball a lot - often times very quickly. The Ravens' offense will have more success sustaining drives, which means less opportunity for Bridgewater. Add in that his deep threat K.J. Hamler is out, and the likelihood of a chunk play through the air is reduced.

A.J. Green over 39.5 receiving yards

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Jalen Ramsey is a matchup worth the price of admission, and both will have their moments. Meanwhile, A.J. Green found some rapport with Kyler Murray last week, going for 112 yards against Jacksonville. As a second option, who Murray may turn to while running away from Aaron Donald, 39.5 feels low here.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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