Fantasy: Which goalies to target, avoid

There are many different philosophies when it comes to drafting goaltending in fantasy, but, ultimately, teams usually only go as far as their netminders take them.

A number of goaltenders should, obviously, be targeted at the top of your drafts, including Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, and Robin Lehner. For that reason, we'll focus on shot-stoppers who aren't necessarily ranked among the top but could provide considerable value.

TargetJuuse Saros, Nashville Predators John Russell / National Hockey League / Getty

Saros is currently going off the board as the 10th goalie in Yahoo drafts, which is a great value spot for a Vezina-caliber goaltender who will get the bulk of the starts with the Predators.

Nashville rewarded the 26-year-old with a four-year, $20-million contract over the summer after he put together his best season in his first campaign as the clear-cut No. 1 starter. He ranked first among goalies with a dazzling 24.64 goals saved above average at five-on-five and fourth with a .868 high-danger save percentage.

Wins might be harder to come by this year as Nashville took a bit of a step back during the offseason with the departures of some key players. However, Saros' peripheral stats should remain stellar as the team still has some rock-solid defensemen playing in front of him.

Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Hart had an absolutely miserable campaign last year with the Flyers after an impressive first two NHL campaigns. Despite putting up a grotesque .877 save percentage and 3.67 goals-against average, head coach Alain Vigneault repeatedly confirmed his belief in the young goalie's ability to bounce back.

It seems many people forget that Hart was just 22 years old last season, which is extremely young for a starting NHL goalie. His talent is clear, and his down year could have easily just been the result of a shortened campaign marred with COVID-19 rules and restrictions.

Hart's currently going as the 26th goalie off the board, and that's a pick that could ultimately win you your pool if he bounces back. The Flyers brought in Martin Jones to serve as backup, which shouldn't be too threatening to Hart's workload. With a massive chip on his shoulder, bank on the youngster to rebound and re-emerge as of the league's better goalies.

Cal Petersen, Los Angeles Kings Andrew D. Bernstein / National Hockey League / Getty

The Jonathan Quick era in L.A. is all but over despite him still having two years left on his deal with the Kings. Petersen assumed the starting role last season and performed quite well for a young goalie in his first year manning the crease, posting a .911 save percentage in 35 appearances.

Petersen is going extremely low in drafts for seemingly no good reason. He's being selected as the 46th goalie in Yahoo drafts and could easily post great stats, as he'll likely get the majority of starts in Los Angeles. Last year, he ranked 12th in the NHL with 5.28 goals saved above expected at even strength, according to Evolving Hockey.

The Kings are dark horses this year playing in arguably the NHL's weakest division. Their defensive game should drastically improve with the addition of Philip Danault, and the arrival of Alex Edler also provides a bit of a boost on the blue line. If you manage to snatch up Petersen as your third goalie in one of the final rounds, you'll be in great shape entering the year.

AvoidMarc-Andre Fleury, Chicago Blackhawks Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It's not often you'd want to avoid the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, but it's equally rare that such a player gets traded to a significantly worse team over the summer. Fleury is being picked too soon - near the start of the fourth round on average as the sixth goalie. There are more reliable options still available at that point in fantasy drafts.

The three-time Stanley Cup champion had a career year in 2021 while playing for the Vegas Golden Knights, who boasted the NHL's No. 3 offense while allowing the fewest goals in the league. Fleury obviously played a big part in that, but his trade to the Blackhawks doesn't bode well for his value.

Fleury's new team ranked 16th in goals per game last season despite possessing two of the league's top offensive players in Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. The club also posted the NHL's worst expected goals for percentage at five-on-five. Newcomers Seth Jones and Jake McCabe will bolster Chicago's porous defense, but Fleury remains a risky pick regardless.

The goalie's peripheral numbers will likely decline in addition to his win total, considering not only the inferior players in front of him but also the fact that he'll turn 37 next month. Yes, Fleury excelled at age 36, but he played for a far better team at both ends of the ice.

All Dallas Stars goalies Andy Devlin / National Hockey League / Getty

The Stars are entering the season with one of the most crowded creases imaginable. With Ben Bishop, Anton Khudobin, Braden Holtby, and Jake Oettinger all available, it's essentially a toss-up as to who will start on any given night.

Bishop's health is a big question mark entering the year as he continues to recover from knee surgery, which kept him out all of last year. Even if Bishop is out of the picture, there's no discernable difference between the other three netminders.

Oettinger is likely the odd man out with the presence of veterans Holtby and Khudobin. Still, the split between those two goalies will be hard to predict and will lower both of their values. It simply seems like an avoidable headache for fantasy managers to monitor on a game-by-game basis. If Bishop re-enters the fold at some point, it'll be an even bigger mess.

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)

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