NFL Week 4 takeaways: Evaluating teams' range of expectations
A quarter(-ish) into the season, the Week 4 takeaways need a freshening. Since we've been schooled not to overreact to one game and have three prior contests to act as data points, there won't be massive changes to these teams' ratings.
However, we now have a better understanding of the rating ranges to which these teams play. Some have a wide scope of expectations each week, depending on injuries, matchups, and other circumstances. Others are consistently consistent - you know what you're going to get.
Before we get into the adjustments from this past week, here are my ratings: The average expectation of the quality of a team and the range they might play up or down to on any given Sunday.
| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 77 | 65-85 |
| Chiefs | 76 | 65-85 |
| Bills | 74 | 60-80 |
| Browns | 74 | 55-80 |
| Ravens | 72 | 55-75 |
| Rams | 72 | 60-80 |
| 49ers | 67 | 55-80 |
| Cardinals | 65 | 50-70 |
| Packers | 65 | 55-70 |
| Chargers | 64 | 50-80 |
| Seahawks | 62 | 50-75 |
| Cowboys | 61 | 45-80 |
| Vikings | 58 | 45-70 |
| Broncos | 57 | 40-65 |
| Patriots | 57 | 45-70 |
| Saints | 56 | 45-75 |
| Raiders | 55 | 35-55 |
| Titans | 54 | 50-75 |
| Panthers | 53 | 35-60 |
| Dolphins | 51 | 45-70 |
| Bengals | 48 | 35-55 |
| Steelers | 46 | 40-65 |
| Eagles | 45 | 30-55 |
| Colts | 44 | 35-60 |
| Bears | 44 | 35-55 |
| Washington | 44 | 40-60 |
| Falcons | 40 | 25-50 |
| Giants | 39 | 30-50 |
| Lions | 36 | 20-40 |
| Jaguars | 34 | 30-50 |
| Jets | 29 | 25-40 |
| Texans | 20 | 20-40 |
This isn't as easy of an answer as it once was. The Chiefs don't move in my ratings, other than to confirm the defense is still bad. The Eagles opted not to run the ball, or their matchup may have been closer. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers' offense shouldn't be downgraded after playing in the rain without Rob Gronkowski and against the most tailored defensive game plan you'll ever see. It's the defense that's the issue as injuries pile up in the secondary.
Speaking of rain games, how much should we really bump the Bills for crushing the Texans? Buffalo gets to make its pitch for being the top team on Sunday night in Kansas City, where I have the Chiefs -2.8, thanks to an above-average home-field advantage.
The Rams are still above the Cardinals, you say? After a 17-point win?! We were on Arizona, knowing it was a tough spot for L.A. after its big win over Tampa Bay. Yards per play slightly favored the Rams 6.3 to 6.2, so this was more evenly played than the scoreboard indicated, and we won't get crazy with an adjustment.
Injuries confuse thingsSimilar story in the other NFC West tilt as the Seahawks beat the 49ers, but Seattle's losses to Tennessee and Minnesota have to be considered. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo left Sunday's game, and San Francisco got a taste of life with a green Trey Lance. That version of the 49ers played to the back end of their overall range, and the Seahawks took advantage.
As expected, the Titans played to the bottom of their range, with Ryan Tannehill missing his top two outside threats. However, the Jets performed to the top of their's, seeing a softer defense and a non-threatening pass game. Throw those together, and you have a recipe for an upset.
The ups and downsThe Dolphins hit a new low in their range with a horrendous performance against the Colts, as the much-ballyhooed defense got run over on the ground and couldn't create Carson Wentz turnovers. Indy showed some life to avoid getting dropped to the nether regions of their range.
The Steelers showed some age, or at least their quarterback did, for the fourth straight week, and we might not have them dropped low enough. The Packers are the world's tightest range team. You always know what you're going to get. The offensive line has held up better than I thought, but, more importantly, Pittsburgh's running game wasn't capable of taking advantage of Green Bay's defense, which was the difference in the Steelers not covering.
The Cowboys roll again at home. While I'll mute their average, I'm open to the idea that the top end of this team's range is quite high. As such, I'll aggressively move them up if they have more good games. Meanwhile, the Jaycee Horn injury may have been more of an issue than Christian McCaffrey's, at least on Sunday.
Misleading matchup of the weekThe Lions ventured into goal-to-go situations three times in the first half against the Bears and came away with zero points. That feat is almost impossible to accomplish. If the reasoning is "Well, that's Jared Goff," then would it be all that surprising if Justin Fields suffered the same fate? No change for either team and Lions +3 probably covers more often than not, given how the squads played.
The back endWe can't go any lower for the Texans. The top end of their range involves Tyrod Taylor's return. Until then, they might find themselves in historically bad territory, especially when Davis Mills is in inclement weather. Even worse, we probably have to bet on them this week against the Pats.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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