NFL Week 5 survivor picks: Bucs, Vikings among safest bets
I'm not going to sit here and pat myself on the back for calling a Bills win last week. I'm also not going to celebrate the Bengals - my backup pick - barely winning a nail-biter.
What I am going to do is issue an "I told you so." In last week's article, I explicitly said to avoid picking the Saints, Titans, Rams, and Buccaneers.
Alright, the Bucs barely squeaked out a win, but the other three fell by the wayside and likely took a healthy chunk of your pool down with them. Now that's cause for celebration.
Let's dive into the Week 5 matchups.
| AWAY | HOME | PICK (CR) |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | Buccaneers (-10.5) | TB (9) |
| Lions | Vikings (-8) | MIN (8) |
| Patriots | Texans (+9) | NE (8) |
| Colts | Ravens (-7) | BAL (7) |
| 49ers | Cardinals (-5) | ARI (5) |
| Giants | Cowboys (-7) | DAL (4) |
| Eagles | Panthers (-4) | CAR (4) |
| Rams | Seahawks (+1.5) | LAR (3) |
| Saints | Washington (+1.5) | NO (3) |
| Bears | Raiders (-4.5) | LAR (3) |
| Jets | Falcons (-3.5) | ATL (2) |
| Titans | Jaguars (+4) | TEN (2) |
| Packers | Bengals (+3.5) | GB (1) |
| Broncos | Steelers (-1) | PIT (1) |
| Browns | Chargers (PK) | LAC (1) |
| Bills | Chiefs (-2.5) | BUF (1) |
Confidence rating (CR) is the author's level of trust in picking the winner of each given game
Last week, there were a number of favorites to avoid, so I broke down my top pick before examining the reasons to avoid the other big favs.
This week, I'm flipping the script, as there are a handful of favorites I think offer varying forms of safety to win outright, so I'll break down my top options before getting into one pick to avoid.
Buccaneers (vs. Dolphins)Realistically, this shouldn't be competitive. The Dolphins' once vaunted defense has fallen off a cliff without Raekwon Davis, and while he has an outside chance of returning this week, cornerback Byron Jones is now questionable with a quad injury. The unit is giving up yards in bunches and just allowed a bad Colts team to possess the ball for over 37 minutes in Week 4.
Offensively, the Dolphins are incredibly limited in what they can do with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, and they have no running game to speak of. It's only going to get worse against the Bucs' defense, which leads the league yards allowed per rush at just 2.7. The weight of the offense will fall on Brissett's shoulders here, and even with Tampa Bay's secondary dealing with numerous injuries, there isn't a world in which the Dolphins have the firepower to pull off the upset - especially with the offensive line incapable of keeping its quarterback upright.
Vikings (vs. Lions)For all the talk about the Lions again competing and deserving better against the Bears, a deeper dive into the box score suggests otherwise. Chicago posted a +1.3 yards-per-play differential and an astounding +4.2 per pass. That's from an offense that managed just 68 passing yards the week prior. The Bears managed a ridiculous 10.1 yards per play through the air, which shouldn't have come as a huge surprise against the Lions' secondary, which ranks dead last in allowing 9.8 yards per pass.
An even bigger issue for Detroit in Week 4 was losing pass-rusher Romeo Okwara for the season. That's big for the Vikings, who have been unstoppable on offense when Kirk Cousins has time to throw. Dalvin Cook returning late against the Browns is reason enough for optimism surrounding his Week 5 availability, and the Lions' red-zone woes on offense play right into Zimmer's bend-but-don't-break defense. Minnesota's star-studded offense will have its way here, while the defense provides enough resistance to secure a win in Minneapolis.
Patriots (at Texans)Bill Belichick's success against rookie quarterbacks is well-documented, and we saw further evidence in Week 2 against the Jets. Davis Mills has shown nothing to suggest he can get the Texans' offense on track, especially in another very tough matchup. The only concern here is whether this could be a letdown spot for the Patriots after leaving it all on the field against Tampa, but even if that is the case, can Mills really take advantage? The Texans have managed just nine points and 3.3 yards per play in Mills' two starts. Yikes.
Avoid: Cowboys (vs. Giants)You know the drill by now: Avoid divisional games in survivor, always. We spent some time last week diving into Daniel Jones' remarkable home/road and underdog/favorite splits, and those come into play here once again. Jones has performed vastly better in his young career both on the road and as a 'dog, and we saw it last week as he led a comeback win in New Orleans despite being without two of his top three wide receivers.
While Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton didn't play, both traveled to New Orleans, which is a good sign regarding their Week 5 availability. With Saquon Barkley looking much closer to his former self, this Giants' offense is sneaky good. It averaged an electric 8.1 yards per play and 10.1 per pass against the Saints, and now gets the Cowboys' defense, which ranks 30th in allowing 6.4 yards per play.
That's not a great representation of Dallas' defense, in fairness, as the unit has performed well relative to expectation. Of course, the unit doesn't have to be great for this team to win football games, with the offense looking close to unstoppable right now.
But the Giants tend to play the Cowboys tight, losing a 37-34 nail-biter in Dallas last season in a contest Barkley and Shepard both missed - and Kenny Golladay wasn't on the roster either. I'm high on this Cowboys team, but the Giants are also flying dangerously under the radar right now. Stay away in your survivor pools and instead just enjoy what should be an exciting game.
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.