Hart Trophy odds: Will MacKinnon claim his 1st?
The Hart Trophy is dominated by forwards, with a center or winger claiming it 17 of the last 18 years.
Since the hardware consistently goes to high-scoring forwards on playoff teams, we can narrow down our player pool while looking for value. Let's get to our best bets.
| Player | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | +250 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +650 |
| Auston Matthews | +850 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +1500 |
| Artemi Panarin | +1900 |
| David Pastrnak | +2000 |
| Sebastian Aho | +2000 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | +2100 |
| Brayden Point | +2200 |
| Mikko Rantanen | +2500 |
| Mitch Marner | +2700 |
| Brad Marchand | +3000 |
| Mathew Barzal | +3000 |
| Aleksander Barkov | +3200 |
| Patrick Kane | +3200 |
| Mark Stone | +3300 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | +3400 |
| Alexander Ovechkin | +4200 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | +4200 |
| Max Pacioretty | +4200 |
| Anze Kopitar | +4500 |
| Cale Makar | +4500 |
| Elias Pettersson | +4500 |
| John Tavares | +4500 |
| Kyle Connor | +4500 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury | +4500 |
| Mika Zibanejad | +4500 |
| Quinn Hughes | +4500 |
| Semyon Varlamov | +4500 |
| Sidney Crosby | +5000 |
Note: Listed only those 45:1 or less with the exception being Sidney Crosby (+5000), who's referenced in this article.
Nathan MacKinnon (+600)To win the Hart, you have to pile up the points for a powerhouse team or an underdog that sneaks into the playoffs on the back of its brightest star. MacKinnon definitely fits the former.
The Colorado Avalanche won more games than any other team over the last two years, and it was MacKinnon leading the charge. He produced at an eye-popping 110-point pace in 2019-20 and a 111-point pace this past season.
Though those outputs didn't earn him an MVP, he was firmly in the mix. He finished second to Leon Draisaitl in 2019-20 and third in 2020-21, so it's not as if he's going unnoticed.
If MacKinnon can sustain this level of production and also lead his team to another Presidents' Trophy, he has a strong chance of claiming his first Hart.
Nikita Kucherov (+1500)I strongly considered Auston Matthews (+850) here - he's averaged 59 goals per 82 games over the last two years - but we're betting numbers rather than players, and more value lies with Kucherov.
Kucherov is one of the most dynamic talents in the league; he recorded 100 points, 128 points, and produced at a 103-point pace in the last three seasons, respectively.
Then, after missing an entire regular season, Kucherov jumped into the playoffs for the Tampa Bay Lightning and didn't skip a beat. He accumulated 32 points in 23 games, which equates to 114 points over a full season. And, again, this was without any game reps to get up to speed. He was thrown into the fire and dominated.
Call me crazy, but I think a consistent 100-plus point producer on a team that's won consecutive Stanley Cups has better than a ~6% chance of winning the Hart.
Sidney Crosby (+5000)Crosby is a long shot, obviously, but these odds are too extreme. Yes, I realize he's past his peak and banged up right now. But I still see plenty of value here.
He finished fourth in Hart voting last year, and that was while averaging 1.12 points per game, which equates to 92 over a full year. That's impressive, sure, but not extraordinary.
Crosby is expected to miss only a week to start the season. For safety purposes, we can assume he'll miss two weeks. That's only five or six games, which wouldn't hold him back from contending for the award.
I have little doubt Crosby can match last season's output on a per game basis. He's still very much elite.
And he'll get a lot of praise if he can do that because of injury issues in Pittsburgh. The season hasn't even started and the Penguins have already lost star center Evgeni Malkin for at least the first two months.
That means, once again, the weight of the world will rest on Crosby's shoulders. If he can continue to excel offensively, while also garnering praise for his defensive game (perhaps more than deserved), he's going to get attention from voters.
A strong showing - at age 34 - from the longtime face of the league gives him better than a 2% chance of adding to his trophy collection.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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