NHL Thursday best bets: Avalanche, Kings to get back on track

Wednesday night's slate was a mixed bag for us. We started on a positive note by winning our under - at plus money, no less - in the Boston versus Florida game.

We appeared destined for a 2-0 night, but, despite dominating the game, Dallas blew a lead with a minute to go in regulation and then fell in overtime to the undermanned Vegas Golden Knights.

We'll aim for better tonight as we look at the best way to attack this nine-game slate.

Winnipeg enters this contest in a good spot. The team has won three consecutive games, and its captain, Blake Wheeler, might return to the lineup.

Combine that with the recent injuries to Kings defenders Drew Doughty and Sean Walker, and the Jets seem like an obvious team to back, right? Not so fast.

The Jets, despite their recent success, aren't playing very well. They place 26th in expected goal share at five-on-five, and they're ranked even worse for high-danger chances. Only the Vancouver Canucks and Detroit Red Wings have controlled smaller shares in the latter category than Winnipeg (42%).

So, why have the Jets been winning? A combination of high shooting percentages and Connor Hellebuyck.

I doubt they're going to continue shooting the lights out sans Mark Scheifele, and Hellebuyck won't be in the net tonight to bail out the team's defensive mistakes.

Instead, it'll be journeyman Eric Comrie between the pipes. The 26-year-old has bounced around quite a bit in recent years. He's only appeared in nine NHL games, and they haven't gone well as he owns a .873 career save percentage.

While the Kings aren't exactly known for their finishing ability, they do generate chances in bulk. They're tied with the Washington Capitals for fifth in high-danger chances at five-on-five.

I expect L.A. to create plenty of opportunities against Winnipeg, which should lead to success against Comrie.

Bet: Kings -105.

The Blues are an improved team, and I expect them to contend for a playoff spot in the Central Division. With that said, I think people are getting a little too carried away with the hype surrounding the club right now.

While they are undefeated, their 5-0-0 record isn't as impressive as it looks on the surface. Hear me out.

St. Louis opened the season with a 5-3 win over Colorado. The Avalanche were missing Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Devon Toews, among others. Despite that, Colorado out-chanced the Blues by 17 and came very close to taking them to overtime.

The Blues followed that up by beating a tanking Arizona team that started Carter Hutton, arguably the league's worst regular goaltender.

Up next? They squeezed out a 3-1 win over the Golden Knights, who were playing without Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, and Alex Tuch.

Then they beat Los Angeles - minus Doughty - a couple of times while losing the Grade A chance battle 27-20 in aggregate. Truly impressive.

Yes, they can only play the teams in front of them. Yes, they deserve credit for finding ways to win. But their schedule, aided by injury troubles, has been soft, and, quite frankly, the Blues haven't controlled play as much as I'd like to see given the circumstances.

This is a team with a negative five-on-five high-danger chance differential - even accounting for score effects - that's been propped up by an unsustainably high 105.5 PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage).

Tonight St. Louis expects to be without two-way star Ryan O'Reilly, who led the team in goals above replacement (plus-24.3) over the last two years. That's going to make a big difference, especially going up against the likes of MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen.

Even undermanned on the backend, I like the Avs to hand the Blues their first loss of the season.

Bet: Avalanche -125.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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